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IPCC authors warn of floods, worsening heatwaves, inundation of coastline in Maha
While the AR6 itself does not predict outcomes for a given sub-national, or even national territory anywhere in the world, the experts said the domino-like succession of extreme weather events in Maharashtra’s recent memory highlights the need for urgent action within the state
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Mumbai: While the hottest February and the wettest March have us worried and confused, two authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now warn of five imminent climate outcomes for Maharashtra that need an immediate action plan and attention. The warnings include loss of agricultural productivity, increased flooding, worsening heatwaves, water scarcity, and inundation of coastal areas and infrastructures.
In a briefing to the press on Friday, two Indian authors of IPCC Anjal Prakash and Joyashree Roy, who recently concluded the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) series, warned of the climate outcomes for the state. While the AR6 itself does not predict outcomes for a given sub-national, or even national territory anywhere in the world, the experts said the domino-like succession of extreme weather events in Maharashtra’s recent memory highlights the need for urgent action within the state.
They also highlighted the need for decision-makers at the state and regional level, from various arms of government, to familiarise themselves with the IPCC assessment reports.
Prakash, research director at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business, who is among the lead authors of two out of six reports constituting the AR6, said, “The outcomes highlighted in our regional briefing are not unique to Maharashtra, but they assume urgency in light of very recent incidents, be it the 2021 Konkan floods, the successive heat waves in April and May of 2022, which affected not just interior Maharashtra but also the coast, or even unseasonal rains that have battered crops just earlier this month.”
“From seeing its hottest February on record, weather stations in parts of Maharashtra are now seeing its wettest March on record. This kind of erratic weather bears a clear climate change signature, as predicted in the IPCC reports. We need a dedicated climate change department with capabilities at a district and sub-district level to be able to adapt to these events. For example, we have all the technology needed to warn farmers in Maharashtra days, but the information does not trickle down,” Prakash added while emphasising the need for policy-makers to keep abreast with emerging research, as hyper-local impacts are not within the purview of the IPCC reports.
For example, a 2021 study published in Springer Nature by Rahul Todmal, assistant professor of geography at Vidya Pratishthan’s ASC College in Baramati, states that about 80% (or 29 out of 36) of Maharashtra’s districts are expected to witness a rise in annual mean temperature (AMT) between 2033 and 2050. This will, in turn, affect water security and agro-climatic conditions, leading to diminished yields of sugarcane, pearl millet, wheat, rice and jowar among other crops.
Yet another 2021 study by scientists under the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) found that just over two-thirds of arable land in Maharashtra is vulnerable to climate change-related impacts, such as drought, floods, and diminishing water security. Of the state’s 36 districts, 11 were found to be highly vulnerable to climate-related agricultural distress (making up 40% of cropped land), while another 14 districts (making up 37% of the state’s agricultural land) were found to be moderately vulnerable to climate change. These districts are all spread out over eastern Vidarbha and central Maharashtra.
However, the experts bemoaned the lack of state machinery to convey such crucial findings to farmers who are most affected. Joyashree Roy, Energy Economics programme, Asian Institute of Technology, and one of the 93 authors of the IPCC Synthesis report released this week said, “This is the result of more than a century of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy use, land use change, lifestyle, and consumption and production patterns. The vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected and the IPCC Synthesis report is very important from that point of view as it focuses on equity.”
More recently, the Gross Domestic Climate Risk report by the Australia-based Cross Dependency Initiative (XDI) ranked Maharashtra at 38 among the world’s top 50 regions at risk of damage to the built environment due to climate change. Built environment refers to man-made structures, features, and facilities viewed collectively as an environment in which people live and work. The more developed or ‘built-up’ a particular region is, the more vulnerable it will be to climate change-induced natural disasters by 2050, the GDCR suggested.
“Yet, Mumbai is pursuing something the Coastal Road which the IPCC has clearly called ‘maladaptive’. You have the Mumbai Climate Action Plan, but it’s not clear whether it is being implemented at all, and there are much larger, fundamental issues with its feasibility. The window of opportunity as per the latest IPCC report is about 15-20 years. This means we need to both adapt and mitigate at the same time at a large scale, which can’t happen unless climate science finds its way down to the grassroots,” Prakash added.
