E-Paper
The dual-attrition trap in the Russia-Ukraine war
This article is authored by Pravesh Kumar Gupta, associate fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi.
The Russia-Ukraine war has become a gruelling battle of attrition, with both sides targeting each other's infrastructure and societal foundations. As of late July 2026, Ukraine's campaign against Russian energy facilities has created significant pressures within Russia, while Moscow's aerial assaults on Ukrainian cities continue to take a heavy toll on lives and infrastructure. The situation in Crimea highlights the conflict's evolving dynamics and vulnerabilities. A one-year forecast suggests the fighting will likely remain a prolonged stalemate, with both nations facing increasing challenges to their endurance, economies, and political resolve.
In 2026, Ukraine significantly intensified its long-range drone operations, targeting Russian oil refineries, depots, ports, and pipelines. Major facilities, including Russia's largest refinery in Omsk, have been struck, leading to hundreds of attacks that have disrupted over 40% of Russia’s gasoline production capacity. This has resulted in widespread fuel shortages, with gas stations facing long queues and price spikes. In response, Russian authorities have imposed export bans on gasoline and diesel, tapped strategic reserves, and imported fuel from Belarus, Kazakhstan, and India.
Disruptions from the military conflict are affecting everyday life in Russia. Summer fuel demand and panic buying have strained supply chains in transport, agriculture, and industry, leading to measurable declines in local economies near affected refineries. The Kremlin's war budget, heavily dependent on energy revenues, is under pressure as export capacity diminishes and repair costs rise. Although higher global oil prices from the West Asia conflict have provided some relief, reduced refining and increased imports deplete resources needed for the war effort. Russian officials acknowledge shortages but emphasise resilience, while the need to divert air defences inward underscores the campaign’s success in forcing Moscow to juggle multiple fronts.
Nowhere is this logistical pressure more evident than in Crimea. Ukrainian forces have conducted a methodical interdiction campaign against ferries, shadow fleet tankers in the Sea of Azov, rail bridges, highways, power substations, and air defences. Strikes on the Kerch Strait crossings and associated infrastructure have disrupted fuel deliveries and military resupply. Power outages have become routine across the peninsula, prompting emergency measures, restricted gasoline sales, and sharp drops in tourism. Russian authorities have declared states of emergency in connected regions. Crimea, once touted as a strategic prize, now functions as a high-maintenance liability that drains Russian resources while offering Ukraine high-value targets for asymmetric impact.
Russia continues to exert pressure on Ukraine with extensive missile and drone attacks on cities and energy infrastructure. Recent strikes on Kyiv and other urban areas have reportedly killed civilians and damaged buildings, straining the power grid. Hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles have targeted substations and civilian areas, aiming to erode morale and force resource diversion for repairs. As winter approaches, millions of Ukrainians face rolling blackouts, disrupted water supplies, and heating challenges, with ongoing strikes threatening essential services and increasing displacement risks.
Despite these hardships, Ukraine demonstrates adaptability. Its growing domestic drone industry enables deeper and more precise strikes, while Western-supplied air defences and innovative tactics blunt some Russian attacks. On the battlefield, Ukrainian counteractions in sectors such as the Oleksandrivka direction have disrupted Russian advances. However, manpower constraints, economic strain from reconstruction needs, and the sheer human cost of prolonged war weigh heavily. Both societies exhibit fatigue, but Ukraine’s sense of existential defence often translates into higher resilience against coercion.
Looking ahead over the next 12 months, the conflict is likely to remain a high-intensity war of attrition characterised by mutual deep strikes rather than sweeping territorial changes. Russia may continue slow, grinding advances in eastern and southern Ukraine, leveraging numerical advantages in manpower and artillery. Yet the Ukrainian interdiction of logistics, particularly around Crimea and supply routes, will raise the costs of these offensives and potentially force Moscow into defensive postures in key areas. Ukraine will probably intensify its focus on Russian energy and military-industrial targets, seeking to compound economic pain and limit Russia’s ability to sustain prolonged operations.
Economically, Russia faces risks of recession, persistent inflation, and labour shortages exacerbated by war spending and mobilisation. However, despite narratives about Russian economic collapse post-2022 war, it has sustained itself economically. While energy exports provided buffers, structural weaknesses could widen if strikes continue eroding refining capacity. Ukraine will grapple with energy crises, especially in winter, alongside reconstruction demands, but may benefit from expanded defence production and potential shifts in international support. Manpower and fatigue will challenge both, with Russia relying on recruitment and North Korean/Iranian assistance, while Ukraine emphasises western technology and alliances.
Politically and diplomatically, prospects for meaningful negotiations remain dim in the near term. Incompatible demands, Russia’s insistence on territorial concessions and security vetoes versus Ukraine’s push for restored sovereignty and credible guarantees make any ceasefire fragile at best. External variables, including US and European policy coherence, global commodity prices, and possible leadership transitions, could tilt the balance. A frozen conflict line might emerge if exhaustion peaks, but without addressing root issues, renewed fighting would loom. Full resolution appears improbable within a year. The human and economic toll will continue rising, underscoring the urgent need for diplomatic pathways even amid battlefield realities.
(The views expressed are personal)
This article is authored by Pravesh Kumar Gupta, associate fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi.
