Bihar exit poll 2025: MGB to give tough fight but its NDA again, no fire by JSP, pollsters predict
Bihar exit poll results 2025: Most pollsters projected a clear sweep for the NDA, keeping the Mahagathbandhan at a distant second position. However, Axis My India projected a narrow win for the ruling group, while forecasting a tough fight from the opposition alliance.
- 10:30 PM IST, Nov 12Pollsters predict NDA return, Mahagathbandhan given 32-118, PK's Jan Suraaj misses out
- 10:23 PM IST, Nov 12CNX forecast NDA sweep, MGB at 70-90 range
- 10:15 PM IST, Nov 12Vote Vibe predicted NDA win with 125-145 seats
- 8:58 PM IST, Nov 12BJP, EC openly 'stealing votes', claims Rahul Gandhi
- 8:39 PM IST, Nov 12All pollster projections are in | NDA win predicted, MGB at second
- 8:18 PM IST, Nov 12No repoll recommended in Phase 2 also, says EC
- 7:59 PM IST, Nov 12Odisha Congress chief says exit polls for Bihar conducted 'under pressure'
- 7:45 PM IST, Nov 12Jharkhand minister urges EC to 'stop this exit poll trend'
- 7:23 PM IST, Nov 12Today's Chanakya gives clear edge to NDA with 160 seats, MGB at distant second
- 7:14 PM IST, Nov 12Today's Chanakya releases caste-wise analysis
- 6:57 PM IST, Nov 12RJD leader says projections 'not exact'
- 6:49 PM IST, Nov 12No one trust exit polls, says Congress leader
- 6:38 PM IST, Nov 12Mahagathbandhan's defeat is certain, says JDU leader Rajiv Ranjan Prasad
- 6:31 PM IST, Nov 12Axis My India's party-wise seat-share projections
- 6:23 PM IST, Nov 12Axis My India predicts NDA win, MGB at distant second, PK no kingmaker
- 6:19 PM IST, Nov 12Axis My India's seat-share projection in Mithilanchal
- 6:19 PM IST, Nov 12Axis My India's seat-share projection in Pataliputra-Magadh region
- 6:05 PM IST, Nov 12Axis My India's projections to be out shortly
- 5:57 PM IST, Nov 12Vote share percentage in Seemanchal region by Axis My India
- 5:45 PM IST, Nov 12Axis My India's ‘preferred CM’ analysis shows favour to Tejashwi Yadav
- 5:36 PM IST, Nov 12Axis My India's occupation and education-wise vote share percentage out
- 5:31 PM IST, Nov 12Axis My India releases sub-caste-wise vote share percentage
- 5:30 PM IST, Nov 12Axis My India puts out main caste-wise vote share percentage
- 5:23 PM IST, Nov 12Women voted 'decisively' in favour of NDA for good governance, says BJP
- 5:15 PM IST, Nov 12Wind in favour of Mahagathbandhan, says Congress's Venugopal
- 5:00 PM IST, Nov 12BJP trying to allure people of Bihar, says Congress MP
- 4:58 PM IST, Nov 12NDA to form govt in Bihar, says state BJP chief
- 4:42 PM IST, Nov 12What time will Axis My India release its exit poll analysis?
- 4:28 PM IST, Nov 12BJP orders 501kg of laddoos anticipating victory
- 4:02 PM IST, Nov 12Tejashwi Yadav has lost, says BJP Danapur candidate
- 3:52 PM IST, Nov 12If NDA wins by over 140 seats, it'll be due to manipulated EVM, voter list, says Congress MP
- 3:40 PM IST, Nov 12Jashn ki nahi, kaam ki tayari karte hai, says Tej Pratap Yadav
- 3:20 PM IST, Nov 12Haryana projections proved wrong, so let's wait for here too, says Kharge
- 3:08 PM IST, Nov 12Let's wait for real results, says Congress general secretary
- 2:40 PM IST, Nov 12NDA will return with full power, says UP minister
- 2:28 PM IST, Nov 12Pollsters' projections released so far show big win for NDA | See numbers here
- 1:43 PM IST, Nov 12CVC Youth Wing projection gives Mahagathbandhan the edge
- 10:44 PM IST, Nov 11Pollsters projections out | See numbers here
- 10:19 PM IST, Nov 11RJD MP says exit polls are PR campaign tools of ruling party
- 9:58 PM IST, Nov 11Nitish Kumar will be back, says BJP Bettiah candidate
- 9:25 PM IST, Nov 11When was exit poll correct? Asks Independent MP Pappu Yadav
- 9:17 PM IST, Nov 11Never any arrogance when NDA comes to power, says Union minister
- 8:49 PM IST, Nov 11When will Axis My India release its projections?
- 8:42 PM IST, Nov 11Journo Mirror projections only one to predict Mahagathbandhan win
- 8:33 PM IST, Nov 11When will Today's Chanakya projections be released?
- 8:30 PM IST, Nov 11NDA will form govt with 2/3rd majority, says BJP MP
- 8:18 PM IST, Nov 11Will go higher in exact polls, says NDA leader and outgoing deputy CM Vijay Kumar Sinha
- 8:11 PM IST, Nov 11Amid NDA win forecast, RJD leader says projections 'have proven wrong in past'
- 8:02 PM IST, Nov 11Pollsters' projections so far
- 7:53 PM IST, Nov 11Poll Diary gives the highest range to NDA, projects 184-209 seats
- 7:46 PM IST, Nov 11Chanakya projections forecast NDA win | Here are the numbers
- 7:42 PM IST, Nov 11ECI updates voter turnout percentage for second phase voting to 68.67%
- 7:32 PM IST, Nov 11P-Marq party-wise projections forecast higher seat range for RJD
- 7:28 PM IST, Nov 11Party-wise projections from Matrize give highest range to JDU
- 7:23 PM IST, Nov 11Polstrat gives 133-148 seats to NDA, 87-102 to MGB
- 7:12 PM IST, Nov 11After high voter turnout in elections, here's what pollsters are predicting | Details
- 7:06 PM IST, Nov 11Pollsters project big win for NDA | Numbers so far
- 6:58 PM IST, Nov 11JVC projects win for NDA, gives a distant second to Mahagathbandhan
- 6:54 PM IST, Nov 11P-Marq has projected 142-162 seats for the BJP-JDU-led NDA
- 6:51 PM IST, Nov 11Dainik Bhaskar's projections also predict a NDA return
- 6:43 PM IST, Nov 11People's Insight gives party-wise projections
- 6:38 PM IST, Nov 11Matrize projects landslide win for NDA, predicts 147-167 seats
- 6:36 PM IST, Nov 11People's Insight predicts NDA win
- 6:31 PM IST, Nov 11In first projections, Peoples Pulse predicts clear edge for NDA
- 6:22 PM IST, Nov 11Projections to be released shortly
- 6:14 PM IST, Nov 11What is the majority mark needed to form govt
- 6:13 PM IST, Nov 11What did 2020 projections say?
- 6:09 PM IST, Nov 11When will projections begin?
- 6:00 PM IST, Nov 11Officials say highest-ever voter turnout of 67.14% recorded at close of polling in phase 2
- 5:58 PM IST, Nov 11Ahead of projections, Manjhi says 'NDA candidates will win 80-120 seats'
- 5:55 PM IST, Nov 11LIVE | As phase 2 voting is set to end, Tejaswhi Yadav says 'Bihar has worked wonders'
- 5:46 PM IST, Nov 1167.14% voter turnout till 5 pm
- 5:30 PM IST, Nov 11Who are the key faces in this year's polls | LIVE
- 5:10 PM IST, Nov 11LIVE | Key parties contesting Bihar assembly elections 2025
- 5:00 PM IST, Nov 11Bihar elections 2025 polling percentage recorded so far | LIVE Updates
- 4:50 PM IST, Nov 11LIVE Updates | SIR in Bihar, will it make a difference? 52 constituencies hold the key
- 4:41 PM IST, Nov 11LIVE Updates | What is the majority mark required to form government in Bihar
- 4:32 PM IST, Nov 11Throwback to 2015 when RJD won 80
- 4:11 PM IST, Nov 11Assembly demographic details
- 4:07 PM IST, Nov 11FAQ | How are exit polls conducted?
- 4:04 PM IST, Nov 11What are exit polls | FAQ answered
- 3:55 PM IST, Nov 11FAQ | When and where to watch exit poll predictions today
- 3:51 PM IST, Nov 11LIVE Updates | Voting for second phase of elections to end around 5 pm
- 3:47 PM IST, Nov 11LIVE Updates | What did 2020 exit polls predict?
- 3:39 PM IST, Nov 11Voting, counting of votes, and results
- 3:35 PM IST, Nov 11Second phase polling underway, voter turnout at 60.4% till 3 PM
- 3:26 PM IST, Nov 11Projections to be released from 6:30 PM

Bihar exit poll results 2025: The updates to this live blog have ended. The exit poll projections for the 2025 Bihar assembly elections have been released, with most pollsters forecasting a big win for the BJP-JDU-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), placing the Mahagathbandhan at a distant second position. However, Axis My India projected a narrow win for the NDA with a range of 121-141 seats, and gave the Mahagathbandhan 98-118 seats....Read More
Exit poll projections were released for the Bihar assembly elections from 6:30 pm on Tuesday, shortly after the conclusion of the voting for the second and final phase of the polls.
Exit poll figures may differ from the actual results, which will be announced on November 14 when counting begins at 8 am under heavy security across all 38 districts.
What is exit poll?
An exit poll is a post-voting survey aimed at understanding voter preferences and predicting the likely outcome of an election. These polls, which are carried out after voters leave the polling stations, gauge how the demographic voted and why.
While they may not always be accurate, they capture the voter sentiment and offer insights into the possible trends and swing patterns before the official results are announced.
Read a detailed explainer on Exit polls here
Bihar exit poll 2025 | Key points
-Bihar election voting: Polling for the Bihar assembly election was conducted in two phases, on November 6 and 11. The counting of votes for the Bihar assembly polls will take place on Friday, November 14.
-Bihar exit poll results: Most released their exit poll projections on Tuesday evening itself, shortly after the conclusion of the second and final phase of voting. Axis My India and Today's Chanakya rolled out their predictions a day later, on Wednesday. Most pollsters projected a comfortable win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), while placing the Mahagathbandhan at a distant second place. Only Axis My India's projections forecast a narrow win for the NDA.
-The PK factor: Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, which many thought would emerge as the top contender in the 2025 Bihar assembly polls, failed to make any significant mark in the state. Most pollsters gave Kishor's party a range of 0-5 seats.
-Bihar election voting percentage: The first phase saw a voter turnout of 65.08 per cent, and the second phase recorded 69.20 per cent voter turnout. The Election Commission on Tuesday announced that Bihar registered a "historic high" overall voter turnout of 66.91 per cent. This is the highest such percentage recorded in the state since 1951.
-Majority mark in Bihar: The 243-member Bihar assembly requires a simple majority mark of 122 seats to form the government in the state.
Bihar exit poll results 2025: Pollsters predict NDA return, Mahagathbandhan given 32-118, PK's Jan Suraaj misses out

Final exit poll projections for the 2025 Bihar assembly elections are in, with pollsters forecasting a clear win for the BJP-JDU-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at a range of 121-209 seats. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan has been placed at a distant second position with a range of 32-118 seats. However, Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, which many thought would leave a significant mark, has appeared to have made little impact in Bihar.
Only Axis My India projected a narrow win for the NDA with a range of 121-141 seats for the BJP-JDU-led alliance, giving the opposition group 98-118 seats, 0-2 to Jan Suraaj, and 1-5 to Others.
The updates to this live blog have ended.
Bihar exit poll 2025 LIVE: CNX forecast NDA sweep, MGB at 70-90 range
CNX, another pollster, projected a sweep for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2025 Bihar assembly elections in its exit poll analysis.
It projected --
NDA: 150-170
MGB: 70-90
JSP: 0-2
Bihar exit poll 2025 LIVE: Vote Vibe predicted NDA win with 125-145 seats
Another pollster, Vote Vibe, predicted a clear majority for the NDA with a range between 125-145 seats.
Its projections are:
NDA: 125-145
MGB: 95-115
JSP: 0-2
Bihar exit poll 2025 LIVE: BJP stole votes to come to power everywhere, claims Rajasthan Congress chief
Rajasthan Congress president Govind Singh Dotasra accused the BJP of "stealing votes" to come to power across the country. He alleged that the party was capturing governments by manipulating the electoral process.
He said the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, had already exposed the "vote theft" by the BJP in the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly polls, as well as the Lok Sabha elections.
Bihar exit poll results 2025 LIVE: BJP, EC openly 'stealing votes', claims Rahul Gandhi
In a recent post on X, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi cited a LiveLaw article on the Election Commission of India's submission to the High Court, wherein the poll body informed that the CCTV footage of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is no longer in the custody of the district election officers in Delhi, and it stands destroyed.
"Millions of BJP members openly roam around different states casting votes. And to cover up this theft, all evidence is wiped out. BJP and EC are together openly stealing votes - the murder of democracy is happening live," Gandhi wrote in his post.
Bihar exit poll 2025 LIVE: All pollster projections are in | NDA win predicted, MGB at second
All the major exit poll projections for the 2025 Bihar assembly elections are out, and all of them forecast a comfortable win for the National Democratic Alliance, keeping the Mahagathbandhan at a distant second place.
- Axis My India exit poll results
-NDA: 121-141
-MGB: 98-118
-JSP: 0-2
-Others: 1-5
- Today's Chanakya exit poll results
-NDA: 148-172
-MGB: 65-89
-JSP: -
-Others: 3-9
- Matrize exit poll results
-NDA: 147-167
-MGB: 70-90
-JSP:0-2
-Others: 2-5
- P-Marq exit poll results
-NDA: 142-162
-MGB: 80-98
-JSP: 1-4
-Others: 0-3
- Peoples Pulse exit poll results
-NDA: 133-159
-MGB: 75-101
-JSP: 0-5
-Others: 2-8
- Bhaskar exit poll results
-NDA: 145-160
-MGB: 73-91
-JSP: -
-Others: 5-10
- People's Insight exit poll results
-NDA: 133-148
-MGB: 87-102
-JSP: 0-2
-Others: 3-6
- JVC exit poll results
-NDA: 135-150
-MGB: 88-103
-JSP: -
-Others: 3-7
- Poll Diary exit poll results
-NDA: 184-209
-MGB: 32-49
-JSP: -
-Others: 1-5
Bihar exit poll 2025 LIVE: No repoll recommended in Phase 2 also, says EC
The Election Commission on Wednesday said that no repoll has been recommended in any of the polling booths of the 122 assembly seats in Bihar that went to polls in the second phase on Tuesday.
It said that this for the first time in the recent history of the state that no repoll has been ordered.
In the first phase as well, no repoll took place.
"After scrutiny, no discrepancy or malpractice was found at any of the polling station and no repoll was recommended. With this, over the two-phased Bihar elections zero re-poll has been recommended. This is a first in the recent history of elections in the state," the EC said in a statement.
Bihar exit poll 2025 LIVE: Odisha Congress chief says exit polls for Bihar conducted 'under pressure'
Odisha Congress chief Bhakta Charan Das told news agency ANI that the exit polls for the 2025 Bihar assembly elections "are being conducted under pressure".
"Bihar has 19% Muslim votes, 17% Scheduled Caste votes, and Yadavs are the majority among the OBCs... The Mahagathbandhan will win these votes... The Congress should be in a position to comfortably form the government," he added.
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: Jharkhand minister urges EC to 'stop this exit poll trend'
Jharkhand minister Irfan Ansari, speaking to news agency ANI, said, "I urge the Election Commission to stop this exit poll trend. These exit polls are being shown to break our morale. A similar exit poll was conducted in Jharkhand, yet we still won... We will secure victory in Bihar. I have been on the ground, met the people, and they are rejecting the BJP."
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: Today's Chanakya gives clear edge to NDA with 160 seats, MGB at distant second
Today's Chanakya's exit poll projections are also out. The pollster has given:
NDA: 160 (+/- 12 seats)
MGB: 77 (+/- 12 seats)
Others: 6 (+/- 3 seats)
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: Today's Chanakya releases caste-wise analysis
Today's Chanakya has released its caste-wise analysis for the exit poll projections for the 2025 Bihar assembly elections.
The numbers are as follows:
- Brahim, Baniya and Rajput
BJP+ (Alliance): 63%
RJD+ (Alliance: 19%
- Yadav
BJP+ (Alliance): 23%
RJD+ (Alliance): 67%
- Muslim:
BJP+ (Alliance): 12%
RJD+ (Alliance): 69%
- SC
BJP+ (Alliance): 58%
RJD+ (Alliance): 26%
- OBC and EBC
BJP+ (Alliance): 55%
RJD+ (Alliance): 24%
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: RJD leader says projections 'not exact'
RJD leader Shakti Singh Yadav dismissed the exit poll projections for Bihar and said that they are "not exact".
"There are people conducting exit polls whose own profiles are not in order... Now they are going to decide the future of Bihar. The exit results will be out on the 14th of November... Tejashwi Yadav will be sworn in on 18th November... The walls of caste and religion were broken. There was only one dream, of change. Bihar is moving towards change. The BJP is scared," Yadav told news agency ANI.
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: No one trust exit polls, says Congress leader
Congress leader Meem Afzal told news agency ANI, "No one trusts exit polls. I do not need to say who makes them and how. The position of the BJP and Nitish Kumar is not good there."
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: Mahagathbandhan's defeat is certain, says JDU leader Rajiv Ranjan Prasad
Bihar exit poll 2025 LIVE: JDU leader Rajiv Ranjan Prasad told news agency ANI that the defeat of the opposition grouping, the Mahagathbandhan, "is certain".
"Tejashwi Yadav himself is losing the election from Raghopur seat as well, so after the counting, when the results come, he will systematically explain to them the excuses he has been looking for...The voters trusted us because they saw the work happening in Bihar," he added.
Bihar exit poll 2025 LIVE: Axis My India's party-wise seat-share projections
According to Axis My India's exit poll projections, which also gives a clear edge to the National Democratic Alliance, here are the party-wise seat share figures:
- National Democratic Alliance (or NDA) (121-141)
BJP: 50-56
JD(U): 56-62
LJP(RV): 11-16
HAM(S): 2-3
RLM: 2-4
- Mahagathbandhan (98-118)
RJD: 67-76
Cong: 17-21
VIP: 3-4
CPI(ML)L, CPI, CPI(M): 10-14
IIP: 0-1
IND: 0-1
- Jan Suraaj Party (or JSP): 0-2
- All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (or AIMIM): 0-2
- Others: 1-5
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: Axis My India predicts narrow NDA win, MGB at second place, PK no kingmaker
Axis My India has projected a win for the BJP-JDU-led National Democratic Alliance, placing the Mahagathbandhan at a distant second, like others.
Here are Axis My India projections:
NDA: 121-141
MGB: 98-118
JSP: 0-2
AIMIM: 0-2
Others: 1-5
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: Axis My India's seat-share projection in Mithilanchal
According to Axis My India, the exit poll seat share projection in the Pataliputra-Magadh region (which has 58 seats) is as follows:
NDA: 32
MGB: 25
JSP: 0
Others: 1
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: Axis My India's seat-share projection in Pataliputra-Magadh region
According to Axis My India, the exit poll seat share projection in the Pataliputra-Magadh region (which has 60 seats) is as follows:
NDA: 35
MGB: 25
JSP: 0
Others: 0
Bihar exit polls 2025 LIVE: Axis My India's projections to be out shortly
While Axis My India has already begun releasing its vote share percentage analysis as per various categories and demographics, its final exit poll projections will be released shortly.
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: Vote share percentage in Seemanchal region by Axis My India
According to Axis My India, the exit poll vote share percentage analysis in the Seemanchal region, which has 24 seats, are as follows:
NDA: 8
MGB: 15
JSP: 1
Others: 0
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: Axis My India's ‘preferred CM’ analysis shows favour to Tejashwi Yadav
According to Axis My India's exit poll survey on the preferred chief minister for Bihar, Tejashwi Yadav has the maximum number of support at 34 per cent.
Here are the figures:
Nitish Kumar: 22%
Tejashwi Yadav: 34%
Chirag Paswan: 5%
Samrat Choudhary: 2%
Lalu Prasad Yadav: 2%
Prashant Kishor: 4%
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: Axis My India's occupation and education-wise vote share percentage out
According to Axis My India, the numbers for the occupation and education-wise vote share percentage in Bihar are as follows:
NDA: 43%
MGB: 41%
JSP: 4%
Others: 12%
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: Axis My India releases sub-caste-wise vote share percentage
According to Axis My India's projections for the sub-caste-wise vote share percentage, the figures are as follows:
NDA: 43%
MGB: 41%
JSP: 4%
Others: 12%
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: Axis My India puts out main caste-wise vote share percentage
Axis My India has began releasing data around the exit poll projections for the Bihar assembly elections.
According to the pollster, the vote share percentage in the main caste-wise category stands as follows:
NDA: 43%
MGB: 41%
JSP: 4%
Others: 12%
Bihar exit poll results LIVE: Women voted 'decisively' in favour of NDA for good governance, says BJP
The BJP on Wednesday said the high turnout of women voters in Bihar assembly elections was a "historic transformation" and claimed that they voted "decisively" in favour of the NDA for development and good governance.
"Since 2014, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, pro-incumbency for good governance has become a new habit in Indian democracy, a trend unseen before," the party said.
The state also recorded the highest female voter turnout in its history, it added.

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