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Kerala Exit Polls 2026 highlights: Exit polls predict Congress-led UDF's return in Kerala after a decade
Kerala Exit Polls highlights: While the LDF is seeking a third consecutive term in office, which would be a first in Kerala, the polls witnessed the BJP stepping up efforts to expand its presence in the state. Kerala has traditionally seen alternating governments between LDF and UDF.
- 8:38 PM IST, Apr 29Pollsters' predictions
- 8:29 PM IST, Apr 29P-Marq predicts 70-75 seats for UDF
- 8:24 PM IST, Apr 29JVC predicts UDF win, gives at least 3 seats to NDA
- 7:56 PM IST, Apr 29People's Insight gives UDF an edge in tight contest
- 7:34 PM IST, Apr 29Vote Vibe predicts 70-80 seats for Cong-led UDF
- 7:28 PM IST, Apr 2945% males, 43% females votes for UDF
- 7:08 PM IST, Apr 29Axis My India predicts highest vote share for UDF at 44%
- 6:59 PM IST, Apr 29Axis My India predicts UDF win with 78-90 seats
- 6:48 PM IST, Apr 29Pinarayi Vijayan still most favoured to become CM, Axis My India data shows
- 6:39 PM IST, Apr 29Matrize predicts UDF surge with 70-75 seats
- 6:35 PM IST, Apr 29People's Pulse predicts Congress-led UDF to get between 75-85 seats
- 6:30 PM IST, Apr 29What are exit polls?
- 6:27 PM IST, Apr 29When will predictions be released?
- 6:25 PM IST, Apr 29Who makes up Kerala’s LDF?
- 5:50 PM IST, Apr 29Projections to be out shortly
Kerala Exit Polls highlights: Kerala voted in its Assembly elections in a single phase on April 9, with the results for the polling expected on May 4. The results will be announced along with those of Tamil Nadu, Assam, West Bengal and Assam. Exit poll predictions for the high-stakes contest between CPI(M) led LDF, Congress-led UDF, and the NDA are out....Read More
While the LDF is seeking a third consecutive term in office, which would be a first in Kerala, the polls witnessed the Bharatiya Janata Party stepping up efforts to expand its presence in the state. Kerala has traditionally seen alternating governments between LDF and UDF, a four-decade pattern broken by the latter in 2021.
The Election Commission of India fixed a specific period of time during which voter survey results cannot be published. The carrying or publishing of exit polls was banned from 7 am on April 9, 2026 until 6. 30 pm on April 29, 2026.
How accurate were polls in 2021?
The CPI(M)-led UDF broke the alternating governments pattern in the previous assembly elections, with this shift broadly gauged by the pollsters in 2021.
The exit polls for Kerala in 2021 had predicted nearly 100 seats for the CPI(M) led-LDF, with different ranges given by each pollster. Axis My India projected 104-120 seats for the LDF and 20-36 for UDF, while CVoter predicted 71-77 for LDF and 62-68 for UDF. Republic-CNX predicted 72-80 seats for LDF and 58-64 seats for UDF, and News 24-Today's Chanakya projected 102 for LDF. While the ranges varied, all pollsters handed a victory to the LDF.
The results were majorly in line with the predictions in 2021, wih the LDF winning 99 seats in the 140-seat Assembly, and the UDF getting 41 seats.
Updates to this live blog have ended.
Kerala Exit Polls: Pollsters' predictions
• Axis My India has predicted 78-90 seats for Congress-led UDF, 49-62 for LDF and 0-3 for NDA.
• Matrize projected 70-75 seats for UDF, 60-65 for LDF and 3-5 seats for NDA.
• People's Pulse forecast 75-85 seats for UDF, 55-65 seats for LDF and 0-3 seats for NDA.
• P-Marq predicted 70-75 seats for UDF, 60-65 seats for LDF and 3-5 seats for NDA.
• JVC predicted 72-84 seats for UDF, 52-61 for LDF and 3-7 for NDA.
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: P-Marq predicts 70-75 seats for UDF
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Pollster P-Marq has predicted wins in 70-75 seats for the Congress-led UDF. It has projected 60-65 seats for LDF, while forecasting 3-5 seats for NDA.
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: JVC predicts UDF win, gives at least 3 seats to NDA
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: JVC has predicted a victory for the Congress-led UDF in Kerala, predicting 72-84 seats for the alliance. Meanwhile, the pollster has given 52-61 seats for LDF, and 3-7 for NDA.
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: People's Insight gives UDF an edge in tight contest
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: People's Insight has predicted wins in 66-76 seats for the Congress-led UDF, while forecasting 58-68 seats for LDF. The pollster has predicted 10-14 seats for the NDA, and 0-1 seat for others.
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Vote Vibe predicts 70-80 seats for Cong-led UDF
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Vote Vibe has predicted 70-80 seats for Congress-led UDF, and 58-68 seats for LDF. The pollster has given NDA between 0-4 seats.
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Axis My India releases gender-wise vote share
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: The gender-wise vote share revealed by Axis My India predicted 45 per cent males votes for Congress-led UDF, while 43 per cent females voted for the alliance.
It projected 37 per cent male votes and 41 per cent female votes for LDF. Meanwhile, 15 per cent males and 13 per cent females voted for NDA.
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Axis My India predicts highest vote share for UDF at 44%
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Axis My India has predicted the highest vote share for Congress-led UDF at 44 per cent, followed by the LDF at 39 per cent. The pollster predicted 14 per cent vote share for NDA, and 3 per cent for others.
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Axis My India predicts UDF win with 78-90 seats
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Axis My India has predicted a comfortable victory for Congress-led UDF with 78-90 seats. The pollster has predicted 49-62 seats for LDF, and between 0-3 seats for NDA.
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Pinarayi Vijayan still most favoured to become CM, Axis My India data shows
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Kerala chief minister is still the most favoured for the post, Axis My India data showed. For the next chief minister, Pinarayi Vijayan got 33 per cent nods, with UDF's VD Satheesan the next in line at 21 per cent.
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Matrize predicts UDF surge with 70-75 seats
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: After People's Pulse, Matrize has also predicted a surge for the Congress-led UDF, giving it between 70-75 seats.
Meanwhile, it projected 60-65 seats for the ruling LDF. The NDA might get between 3-5 seats, according to Matrize.
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: People's Pulse predicts Congress-led UDF to get between 75-85 seats
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: People's Pulse has predicted the Congress-led UDF will get between 75-85 seats. Meanwhile, the pollster said the incumbent LDF will get between 55-65 seats. It gave NDA between 0-3 seats.
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: What are exit polls?
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Exit polls are published soon after voting concludes to understand voting patterns and estimate possible results.
People participating are asked about the party they voted for, along with details such as age, gender and community, to study trends. While not always fully correct, they can predict the voter mood and possible shifts before the official results are announced.
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: When will predictions be released?
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Predictions are expected to be released shortly after 6.30 pm. The carrying out or publishing of exit polls is banned from 7:00 am on April 9, 2026, until 6:30 pm on April 29, 2026.
The Election Commission has fixed a specific period during which voter survey results cannot be published.
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Who makes up Kerala’s LDF?
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: The Left Democratic Front is led by the Communist Party of India (M), and has been the ruling alliance since 2016.
LDF has won a total of 6 elections out of 10 since the formation of the alliance in 1980. The alliance consists of CPI (M), CPI, and various smaller parties.
Kerala Exit Polls LIVE: Projections to be out shortly
Kerala Exit Poll LIVE: Pollsters will soon release their projections for elections for the 140-seat Assembly in Kerala. The state voted in a single phase on April 9.
