Pre-monsoon showers in city likely by June 11

Palawat said this depression is likely to move fast towards northwest Arabian Sea, near Maharashtra and Gujarat coast.

You may get relief from the sweltering heat, as Mumbai is likely to witness pre-monsoon showers by June 11, private weather forecaster Skymet said on Thursday.

According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon hits Kerala generally by June 1 and the onset date for Maharashtra and Mumbai are between June 8 and 10.(Pratik Chorge/HT Photo)

The southwest monsoon over Mumbai, officially identified for four months – June to September – is expected by June 14 or 15, the forecaster said, adding that based on indications from weather models, monsoon intensity along the west coast is likely to pick up after the onset over Kerala, which according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), is expected by June 8. “Rain intensity, which is moderate over Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, is expected to decrease after the monsoon onset over Kerala, as moisture and wind convergence will move towards the development of a low pressure area over the south-east Arabian Sea. The low pressure area will intensify into a weather depression,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president (meteorology and climate change), Skymet.

Palawat said this depression is likely to move fast towards northwest Arabian Sea, near Maharashtra and Gujarat coast. “As a result, pre-monsoon rains will commence by June 11 and monsoon onset will be around June 14 or 15, plus or minus two days.”

DS Pai, senior scientist and head of IMD’s long range weather forecast division said the movement of the monsoon along the west coast after onset [over Kerala] depends on the strength and intensity of the low pressure becoming a weather depression.

According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon hits Kerala generally by June 1 and the onset date for Maharashtra and Mumbai are between June 8 and 10.

Independent meteorologists said monsoon’s arrival is expected over the south Konkan coast by June 14. “Onset of the monsoon is expected over Kerala by June 9,” said Akshay Deoras, meteorologist, PhD researcher at the department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK.

“There is still not much clarity about the arrival date for the interior parts of Maharashtra. It seems difficult before June 20.”

“Farmers in Vidarbha, Marathwada and most of central Maharashtra will have to wait a bit longer for the monsoon”