RLSP in hand, eyes on LJP, Grand Alliance waits for 2019

The Grand Alliance is of the view that RLSP chief’s entry would help them challenge chief minister Nitish Kumar’s sway over Kushwahas and mobilise a major chunk of these votes (estimated at 8%).

The decision of RLSP chief Upendra Kushwaha to join the Mahagathbandhan or the Grand Alliance in Bihar has come as a booster for Congress and the RJD, which feel it could prove decisive in titling the balance in their favour and against the NDA in the state.

Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) leader Upendra Kushwaha speaks after joining the grand alliance during a press conference at AICC in New Delhi, Thursday (File)

A day before the results for assembly polls in five states came in, Kushwaha had already resigned from the union cabinet.

The Grand Alliance is of the view that RLSP chief’s entry would help them challenge chief minister Nitish Kumar’s sway over Kushwahas and mobilise a major chunk of these votes (estimated at 8%).

While Kushwaha’s party and supporters had been pitching for a larger seat share in the NDA, claiming an expansion in RLSP’s vote base and the numerical strength of their core voters, a section in the BJP held the view that the party had erred in granting 3 and 7 seats to their allies (RLSP and LJP) in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

They also claimed that the 100% strike rate of RLSP and six out of 7 seats won by LJP had more to do with the charisma of Narendra Modi than the popularity of Kushwaha or Ramvilas Paswan. Murmurs over Kushwaha and former chief minister Jiten Ram Manjhi’s inability to transfer votes for the NDA during the 2015 assembly elections grew louder after its rout by Grand Alliance, then comprising JD(U), RJD and the Congress.

The surprise re-union of friends-turned-foe JD (U) and BJP in July 2017 had left the smaller allies shaky and Kushwaha led the charge for early settlement of seat sharing that culminated in his parting ways with the NDA after a prolonged see-saw battle.

As Kushwaha sniped against the BJP, obliquely and sometimes directly, the two parties in the Opposition camp, Congress and RJD, watched him keenly, often dropping hints. The RLSP chief himself was less than subtle at times, especially when he spoke of a delicious ‘kheer’ that could be prepared with milk from the traditional cattle rearing Yadavs and rice from agriculturist community like Kushwahas and other material from several other sections of society, hinting at a new political realignment of forces.

The “chance” meeting of former deputy CM Tejashwi Prasad Yadav in September and ‘arranged’ meeting of senior Congress leaders Ahmad Patel and Pradesh Congress Campaign Committee chief Akhilesh Prasad Singh at his residence in Delhi last week was indicative of the efforts to build a momentum against the NDA in Bihar.

And if the December 31 ultimatum of LJP is any indication, the shake-up caused by RLSP exit in the NDA is already gathering steam.

No wonder, leaders across parties like RJD, Congress, Manjhi-led Hindustani Awam Morcha and Sharad Yadav-led Loktantrik Janata Dal are unanimous in underlining the fact that Kushwaha can bring along about 4-5% of votes of the NDA to the UPA. “In event of this happening, the balance can tilt in our favour,” they say.

“The RJD-Congress combine has fallen short by 7-8% votes in both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections since November 2005, when Kumar-led NDA first formed the government in Bihar,” said a senior RJD leader, adding “along with Yadavs (14.4%) and Muslims (16%), the combination of Kushwahas and other sections, opposed to NDA formation, can pose a serious challenge.”

RLSP national general secretary and spokesperson Fazal Imam Mallick said, “Kushwahas have a deciding presence, in excess of 35,000 votes, in over 70 assembly constituencies of the state and can play a crucial role in both the Lok Sabha and assembly elections.”

But Grand Alliance sources are also wary of the ambitions of RLSP workers to see their leader occupy pole position in state politics, which would start reflecting in the number of seats (not less than 5) for 2019 LS polls.

In that event, both the RJD and Congress would have to make room. “The Congress is likely to settle for 8-12, RJD 18-20, RLSP 4-5 (maybe one in Jharkhand), HAM 1-2, LJD 1-2 and Left parties 1 seat each,” said a person in the know of the broad formula.