Covax cuts supply forecast for 2021, says enough doses available to protect 20% population in low-income economies

Covax pushed the key milestone of two billion doses released for delivery to the first quarter of 2022.

Covax, the global Covid-19 vaccine sharing programme, on Wednesday reduced its vaccine supply forecast for the year 2021 to 1.425 billion doses, much lesser from the 1.9 billion doses it expected to have by the end of this year.

20% of the people in low- and middle-income countries have been immunised against Covid-19 in comparison with the 80% population in countries with higher incomes, Gavi, the vaccine alliance, said. (AP)

“According to its latest Supply Forecast, COVAX expects to have access to 1.425 billion doses of vaccine in 2021, in the most likely scenario and in the absence of urgent action by producers and high-coverage countries to prioritize COVAX. Of these doses, approximately 1.2 billion will be available for the lower income economies participating in the COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC),” Gavi, the vaccine alliance, said in a statement on Wednesday.

The body also said that the 1.4 billion doses would be enough to protect 20% of the population, or 40% of all adults, in 92 AMC countries except India. Gavi describes AMC as “the innovative financing instrument that will support the participation of 92 low- and middle-income economies in the COVAX Facility – enabling access to donor-funded doses of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines.”

Further, it also pushed the key milestone of two billion doses released for delivery to the first quarter of 2022. It was earlier expected to achieve this milestone by the end of the current year.

So far, $10 billion have been raised by the Covax programme and has legal binding commitments for upto 4.5 billion doses of the vaccine. Also, 240 million doses have been delivered via the programme to 139 countries in six months, a statement from Gavi said. However, it also noted that only 20% of the people in low- and middle-income countries have been immunised against Covid-19 in comparison with the 80% population in countries with higher incomes.

“Today, COVAX’s ability to protect the most vulnerable people in the world continues to be hampered by export bans, the prioritisation of bilateral deals by manufacturers and countries, ongoing challenges in scaling up production by some key producers, and delays in filing for regulatory approval,” it said, listing the factors affecting the delivery of vaccines across the world.

On Wednesday, director-general of the World Health Organization Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus also expressed his concerns about equal distribution of vaccines globally. Earlier the WHO chief called on countries providing booster doses to halt their programme at least until the end of September, now renewing that call until the year end to enable every country to vaccinate at least 40% of its population.