E-Paper
Bihar exit poll results: NDA's return or a Mahagathbandhan twist? What 11 pollsters predict
Exit poll figures may differ from the actual results, which will be announced by the ECI following the counting of votes on today, November 14.
Exit poll projections from at least 11 pollsters have predicted a return for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar after the assembly elections concluded on Tuesday evening, placing the Mahagathbandhan of RJD and Congress at a distant second position in the electoral race.
While the actual results for the high-stakes will be announced by the Election Commission of India after the counting of votes on Friday, November 14, exit poll projections have hinted at the possible outcome of the poll battle. Follow live updates on 2025 Bihar assembly elections
Ten of the 11 pollsters projected an NDA sweep over the last two days, while only one forecast a close contest between the ruling and the opposition alliance.
What are exit polls?
Exit polls are the outcome of a post-voting survey designed to understand voter preferences and predict the likely result of an election. These are carried out after voters leave the polling stations and gauge how the demographic voted and why.
Exit poll figures may differ from the actual results as the error margin varies from poll to poll. They may not always be accurate, but they capture the voter sentiment and offer insights into the possible trends and swing patterns before the official results are announced.
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Bihar exit poll results 2025
Projections from 11 pollsters forecast a comfortable win for the NDA, keeping the Mahagathbandhan in second place and leaving close to zero seats for Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj party.
Who projected what:
Axis My India
- NDA: 121-141
- MGB: 98-118
- JSP: 0-2
- Others: 1-5
Today's Chanakya
- NDA: 148-172
- MGB: 65-89
- JSP: -
- Others: 3-9
Matrize
- NDA: 147-167
- MGB: 70-90
- JSP:0-2
- Others: 2-5
P-Marq
- NDA: 142-162
- MGB: 80-98
- JSP: 1-4
- Others: 0-3
Peoples Pulse
- NDA: 133-159
- MGB: 75-101
- JSP: 0-5
- Others: 2-8
Bhaskar
- NDA: 145-160
- MGB: 73-91
- JSP: -
- Others: 5-10
People's Insight
- NDA: 133-148
- MGB: 87-102
- JSP: 0-2
- Others: 3-6
JVC
- NDA: 135-150
- MGB: 88-103
- JSP: -
- Others: 3-7
Polstrat
- NDA: 133-148
- MGB: 87-102
- JSP: -
- Others: 3-5
Poll Diary
- NDA: 184-209
- MGB: 32-49
- JSP: -
- Others: 1-5
Vote Vibe
- NDA: 125-145
- MGB: 95-115
- JSP: 0-2
- Others: 1-3
Poll Diary projected the highest number of seats for the NDA, with a range of 184-209, while Axis My India forecast the lowest range of 121-141 seats.
For Mahagathbandhan, the highest range of projection, 98-118 seats, was given by Axis My India, and the lowest range was forecast by Poll Diary: 32-49 seats.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) (JDU)-led NDA's move to seek re-election in the state, backed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 11-year-long journey at the Centre and Nitish Kumar's 20-year rule in Bihar.
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Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan played on its condemnation of the Nitish Kumar government, accusing it of corruption among several other issues. The opposition alliance, primarily comprising the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), promised government jobs, interest waivers for self-help women's groups, a new law to curb paper leaks in exams, and monthly financial aid for women, among other things, in its manifesto for the assembly elections.
Bihar exit poll | Key takeaways
- NDA back with a bang? Most pollsters have projected a clear return of the ruling alliance. In the demographic-wise breakdown of projections as well, NDA appeared to be performing decisively.
- All regions, except one: The ruling National Democratic Alliance appeared to be performing well in all regions, except one -- Seemanchal -- which predominantly has been a Mahagathbandhan stronghold. To cite an example, Axis My India's region-wise forecast gave 15 seats to the opposition alliance, while giving just eight seats to the NDA.
- Preferred CM surprise: Despite the NDA being projected to win more seats in the Bihar assembly, the results of the pollsters' survey of people's preferred chief minister came as a surprise. RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav appeared to be a more popular choice for CM than incumbent Nitish Kumar. For example, according to Axis My India, Tejashwi has a preference rate of 34 per cent, while Nitish Kumar has 22 per cent. Peoples Pulse also conducted a CM choice survey, with Tejashwi gaining 32 per cent preference and Nitish having 30 per cent popularity.
- The PK factor: Amidst all the projections in NDA's favour stood Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, which many thought would rise above, to the top, in this assembly election. However, pollsters' predicted numbers indicated that JSP failed to make any significant impact in the state, as most projections ranged between zero and five seats.
