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Winnability in Andhra Pradesh assembly polls to determine BJP-TDP tie-up
TDP leader and former chief minister Chandrababu Naidu’s two-day visit to Delhi from Monday has piqued curiosity about the possibility of an announcement about the alliance
The possibility of an alliance between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Telegu Desam Party (TDP) will depend on issues including whether their coming together will translate into a winning combination in Andhra Pradesh where the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) is in power, BJP leaders aware of the matter said.
TDP leader and former chief minister Chandrababu Naidu’s two-day visit to Delhi from Monday has piqued curiosity about the possibility of an announcement about the alliance. Both sides declined to comment on the issue. BJP leaders said it was premature to announce whether the alliance would eventually take shape.
Naidu’s meeting with Union home minister Amit Shah in June stoked speculation that the two former allies could renew ties ahead of the 2024 general elections. On Monday, a person aware of the matter said Naidu’s visit was “official” as he apprised the Election Commission of India about the alleged bogus voters in Andhra Pradesh. Naidu also attended President Droupadi Murmu’s release of a commemorative coin to mark the former Andhra Pradesh chief minister and TDP founder NT Rama Rao’s centenary celebrations.
TDP walked out of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in 2018 saying the Union government was dragging its feet over granting Andhra Pradesh a special status.
“There has been an attempt from the TDP to renew the partnership, but there are several factors that the BJP would be considering, the foremost being what the other party will bring to the table in terms of votes,” said a state leader, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The leader said though the BJP’s “area of influence” in the state is limited compared to the regional parties, its acceptance among the people is rising. “There is a recognition of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and the pro-people schemes of the central government. The BJP is increasingly being seen as an alternative [in the state].”
In the 2019 polls, the BJP could not win any seats in the 175-member Andhra Pradesh assembly. Its vote share was 0.85%. The party did not win a single seat out of the 25 in the state in the Lok Sabha polls the same year.
The TDP won 23 assembly seats with a vote share of 39.17% in 2019. It managed to get just three Lok Sabha seats with a 40.19% vote share. The YSRCP won 151 assembly seats, bagging 49% of the votes. It also swept the Lok Sabha polls, winning 22 of the seats with a 49.89% vote share.
The leader quoted above said the state elections will be a fight for TDP’s survival. “...the YSRCP has strengthened its hold in the state. That said, there is a section of people, who believe that the BJP, Jana Sena Party, and TDP will be a formidable combination.”
The TDP has been wooing the BJP. But its leadership has indicated the BJP’s closeness to the ruling YSRCP and chief minister Jagan Mohan Reddy has emerged as an impediment in formalising the alliance.
YSRCP has maintained friendly ties with the BJP, offering crucial support to key bills in Parliament. It voted against the no-confidence motion against the government in Lok Sabha besides supporting the passage of the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (Amendment) Bill this month.
A second BJP leader said the state election will be a tough contest with YSRCP having strengthened its position through welfarist policies and fulfilling the promises it made in its manifesto.
“That in itself would be a major consideration for firming up the alliance as the TDP has not positioned itself as an alternative to YSRCP, nor has it been an effective opposition that has built on the anti-incumbency,” said the first leader.
