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Monsoon? India mostly dry: Skymet says in apparent dig at IMD
Monsoon rains may be patchy in the country's hinterland until the first week of July, according to extended-range forecasts by both the IMD and Skymet Weather.
New Delhi: Extended range forecasts by both India Meteorological Department and private meteorological forecaster Skymet Weather have indicated that monsoon rains may be patchy in the Indian hinterland till the first week of July.
Skymet Weather shared their extended forecast on Monday which shows most parts of central and northwest India are likely to be “extremely” and “severely” dry till July 6. The forecaster’s definition of “extremely” dry is when rain is 60% or less than normal, and “severely” dry is rain deficiency between -20% and - 59%.
IMD’s forecast too indicates patchy rain coverage in the week of June 30 to July 6. There has been a 54% rain deficiency in the country since June 1 with 53% deficiency over south peninsula; 80% deficiency over central India; 10% deficiency over northwest India and 53% deficiency over east and northeast India.
The main reason for the poor June rains is extremely severe cyclone Biparjoy.
“Even though Biparjoy will bring rainfall to Gujarat and Rajasthan, we are not expecting monsoon onset over central India for nearly a week. Monsoon coverage of interior parts of the country has not picked up. I do not expect the monsoon to pick up properly until June 18 because Biparjoy once it weakens after landfall will remain a low pressure area and will not allow monsoon winds to pick up. It will in fact divert the moisture towards extreme northwest India. We don’t think June’s deficiency will be covered,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather.
“Extended range forecasts are not very accurate because of the long time lag. But some models are indicating dry conditions even in early July. Forecasts are more accurate around five days in advance,” added Palawat.
But most experts agree that the monsoon will be late over central India.
“Monsoon conditions are not very good. There could be a delay in monsoon reaching central India. As I said earlier, the Bay of Bengal branch of monsoon should wake up and become active. It’s unlikely to reach central India before June 21 as per IMD’s models,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
“There will be rainfall over the west coast due to Biparjoy approaching the Indian coast but I cannot say that it will pull the monsoon current along. It may enhance wind speed and rainfall briefly but once it dissipates around June 16, monsoon will be on its own again. We are not seeing very strong signals yet of the monsoon covering interior parts of the country,” an IMD official said on Sunday.
Patchy rainfall is likely to have an adverse affect on the farm sector, especially in cental and western India, according to Skymet. “Skymet Extended Range Prediction System (ERPS) is projecting a dismal outlook for the next 4 weeks, between 9thJune and 6thJuly. Agriculture heartland is looking rather cracked and parched. This coincides with the crucial time of sowing or at least preparing the field, with the hope of impending decent rains. Inadequate rains over the central and western parts, the core monsoon zone will find it difficult to absorb the drying effects, rather early in the season. It is likely to leave the poor farmer in a state of indecisiveness choosing between the type of crop and the crop cycle,” the forecaster said in a statement on Monday.
“Sowing will get delayed due to delayed onset of monsoon. IMD is predicting a normal monsoon which may be normal for the season as a whole but its critical to know if there will be gaps during the season,” GV Ramanjaneyulu, Executive Director at Centre for Sustainable Agriculture, said on Thursday.
IMD declared monsoon onset over Kerala on Thursday (June 8), seven days after it normally arrives in the state on June 1, even as climate scientists and meteorologists warned of a weak onset due to the severe cyclone Biparjoy.
