World not on track to decarbonise: Report

None of the countries are on track to decarbonize their power sectors, says Climate Action Tracker.

None of the countries are on track to decarbonizing their power sectors, a key step for meeting net zero commitments by mid-century, a new report by Climate Action Tracker has said.

India and China, the report said, have 1.5°C compatible levels of fossil power now. (Pexels)

India and China, the report said, have 1.5°C compatible levels of fossil power now, but the two economies need to develop their long-term phase-out strategies.

India is adding more coal capacity when it should be phasing down all coal, the report said, highlighting an overall “mixed picture”. The renewable energy sector in India is booming, but not fast enough.

China, too, is adding more coal and has a mixed picture when it comes to renewable energy, CAT, an independent scientific project that tracks government climate action and is supported by the Federal Government of Germany via the International Climate Initiative, said on Tuesday.

Reacting to the CAT’s findings, the Union environment ministry said: “The analysis is based on Country targets announced from time to time, it does take into account the broader regime of climate policies and commitments. The government has been implementing various schemes and programs, both in terms of mitigation and adaptation. This aspect has totally been ignored. The concept of fair share and cumulative historical responsibility of developed nations to bring to the Earth to a warming of 1.1 has totally been ignored.”

“India is doing far more than its fair share to combat climate change. Developed countries have consumed more than 80% of the global carbon budget (since 1850) for limiting average temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius by 2100, leaving countries like India with very little carbon space for the future. India’s annual emissions are well below the three leading emitters — China, the US and the European Union — and its per capita emissions are much below the world average,” the response said.

“India is home to 17% of the global population but accounts for only 4% of global carbon emissions from 1850 until 2019. Developed nations with the same percentage of population account for nearly 60% of carbon emissions,” it added.

According to the report, the UK is on track to phase out coal by 2024, which is on a 1.5°C compatible timeline, with the European Union, Germany, Chile and South Africa also heading in the right direction. Brazil could get on the right track if it repeals Bolsonaro-era legislation, CAT said.

Chile, Germany, EU, Australia, UAE, Brazil, Indonesia, Japan are all moving in the wrong direction when it comes to fossil gas. US is also moving in the wrong direction by not phasing out coal and fossil fuels fast enough.

“The broad strokes of a Paris-aligned roadmap are clear — we need to roughly halve emissions by 2030, achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and net zero greenhouse gas emissions soon after,” CAT said.

Developed countries need to phase out coal by 2030, and unabated gas by 2035. The developing country power sector transition is not far behind, phasing out both coal and fossil gas by 2040, many with financial support. This represents a transition to global clean power within a generation, CAT’s analysis said.

“Key to achieving clean power is the acceleration of renewables deployment. All countries achieve above 80% of electricity from renewables by 2035 in these 1.5°C aligned benchmarks, and 90-100% renewable electricity supply by 2050,” it said, adding that there is no role for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in coal generation, and a marginal role for fossil gas equipped with CCS, at best.

“The future of fossil fuels in a 1.5 ̊C compatible power sector transition, whether abated or unabated, is the same – one of swift decline,” it concluded.

CAT’s analysis is very different from the G20’s broad roadmap on energy transition presented in New Delhi Declaration.

The G20 has committed to achieving global net zero emissions by or around mid-century, while taking into account the latest scientific developments and in line with different national circumstances.

It has also committed to tripling renewable energy capacity globally through existing targets and policies, as well as demonstrating similar ambition with respect to other zero and low-emission technologies, including abatement and removal technologies, in line with national circumstances by 2030. G20 did not referred to phasing out or phasing down of fossil fuels.