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US midterms: New poll shows Democrats gain ground in seven key Senate battlegrounds, putting GOP strongholds at risk
Democrats lead in five Republican-held Senate contests, including Texas, Kansas and Ohio, while their advantage is strongest in Michigan, as per new poll.
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Democratic Senate candidates are gaining momentum across seven closely watched battleground states, with new polling suggesting Republicans could face a serious challenge in their bid to retain control of the chamber. The latest New York Times/Siena poll, released Sunday, shows Democrats leading in several traditionally Republican states, including Texas and Kansas, just days ahead of the midterm elections.
According to the survey, Democrats are ahead in five states currently represented by Republican senators — Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas. The contest in Iowa remains almost evenly divided, while Democrats hold a substantial advantage in Michigan, the only state among the seven where Republicans are seeking to flip a Democratic-held Senate seat.
Democrats show strength in Republican-held states
The findings point to a potentially favourable political environment for Democrats, who are hoping to gain enough seats to take control of the Senate.
Deep Dive
Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, said the polling suggests that a Democratic victory and a shift in Senate control are both realistic possibilities. However, he warned against drawing firm conclusions because several contests remain statistically close.
"While a blue wave and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility, with so many races within the poll's total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible," Levy said.
The results have attracted particular attention in Texas and Kansas, two states with long Republican histories in Senate elections. Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, while the last Democratic Senate victory in Kansas came in 1932.
Texas and Kansas emerge as major Democratic opportunities
In Texas, Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico is ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by seven percentage points, receiving 50% support compared with Paxton's 43%.
Kansas is also showing signs of a competitive race. Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton leads incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 49% to 44%, according to the survey.
Other Republican-held states are displaying similar trends.
In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown has a five-point advantage over Republican Senator Jon Husted, with the figures standing at 49% and 44%, respectively.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins by six percentage points, securing 51% support against Collins' 45%.
Close contests in Alaska and Iowa
Alaska is another state where Democrats appear to have an opportunity to make gains. Former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola is polling at 48%, narrowly ahead of Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, who has 46%.
The Iowa contest is even tighter. Democratic candidate Josh Turek leads Republican Representative Ashley Hinson by just one percentage point, with support at 48% and 47%, respectively.
Michigan, meanwhile, records the strongest Democratic performance among the seven states surveyed. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 53% to 42%, giving him an 11-point advantage.
Trump approval and economic concerns shape voter sentiment
Beyond individual Senate contests, the survey highlights growing dissatisfaction among voters with President Donald Trump and the Republican Party's handling of economic issues.
Only 38% of likely voters across the seven states said they approved of Trump's performance as president. The finding is notable because Trump won five of these states by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election.
The cost of living has also emerged as a significant issue for voters. Democratic candidates enjoy a nine-percentage-point advantage over Republicans on the question of which party voters trust more to address rising living expenses.
Democrats lead on this issue in all seven states included in the survey. Their candidates are also ahead among independent voters across every state examined, suggesting that the party's gains extend beyond its traditional voter base.
Democrats improve in Six States, but Republicans retain some advantages
Compared with the New York Times/Siena surveys conducted in September, Democratic candidates have strengthened their positions in six of the seven states. Alaska is the only state where the party has not recorded a similar improvement.
However, the latest numbers do not guarantee a Democratic victory. Voters who made their candidate decisions within the previous month showed a nine-point preference for Republican candidates, indicating that late-deciding voters could play an important role in determining the outcome.
There is also a historical reason for caution in Maine. The New York Times pointed out that polling underestimated Susan Collins in the 2020 election. At the time, she was behind in every survey but ultimately secured a comfortable re-election victory.
Senate control remains up for grabs
For Democrats, the path to a Senate majority involves defending their current seats while flipping at least four Republican-held seats.
The latest polling suggests that several opportunities may be emerging across traditionally Republican territory. However, the narrow margins in a number of contests mean that the final outcome remains uncertain.
The New York Times/Siena surveys were conducted among likely voters between October 23 and November 1. The state-level margins of sampling error ranged from plus or minus 3.4 percentage points in Texas to five percentage points in Alaska.
With several races still highly competitive, the closing days of the election campaign could prove decisive in determining which party controls the US Senate.
