Michael box office prediction: Michael Jackson biopic to open at record $150 million, will beat Bohemian Rhapsody, Elvis

Michael stars Jaafar Jackson as his uncle Michael Jackson. The biopic is battling bad reviews, but that seems to have not affected its box office prospects.

Updated on: Apr 23, 2026, 10:16:09 IST

By Abhimanyu Mathur

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Michael box office: The biopic Michael, about Michael Jackson, is releasing in theatres this Friday. The film, which stars the Prince of Pop’s nephew, Jaafar Jackson, in the lead role, has faced negative early reviews. But that has not seemed to dampen its prospects at the box office. Trade analysts are bullish about Michael’s prospects at the ticket window, predicting a genre-defining start globally.

Jaafar Jackson as his uncle Michael Jackson in Michael.

Michael box office prediction

According to multiple leading Hollywood box-office watchers, Michael is expected to earn $65-70 million in North America in its opening weekend. Both Deadline and Variety put similar estimates for the film’s domestic start. This will be a new record for any musical biopic. Freddie Mercury’s biopic Bohemian Rhapsody opened at $51 million in 2018, while Straight Outta Compton, the 2015 film on hip-hop group NWA, had a start of $62 million. Michael is certain to surpass them both, even by conservative estimates.

Overseas, where Lionsgate has sold the film to Universal, Michael is expected to more than double its box office earnings. Trade estimates put its worldwide opening weekend at $140-150 million, again a record for the genre. Bohemian Rhapsody owns that record with its $121 million debut in 2018. Elvis Presley’s biopic, Elvis, failed to touch the $100 million mark, as did The Complete Unknown, based on the life of Bob Dylan.

Michael battles bad early reviews

Bohemian Rhapsody, which starred Rami Malek, remains the highest-grossing musical biopic in history, with a lifetime gross of $910 million. Trade insiders are projecting Michael to beat that mark, and maybe even push for a billion-dollar run at the box office. But standing in its way are negative early reviews. The film has a measly 36% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes (up from 27% on Tuesday). This can hamper word of mouth, but the early advance booking projections defy the critics’ reviews.

All about Michael

Directed by Antoine Fuqua and written by John Logan, Michael also stars Nia Long, Laura Harrier, Miles Teller, and Colman Domingo. The film chronicles Michael Jackson's journey from Gary, Indiana, to global superstar, featuring his early years with the Jackson 5, his breakthrough album Off The Wall, and his superstardom with Thriller. Featuring original music from Michael Jackson and scratch recreations by Jaafar, the film releases in theatres on April 24.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Abhimanyu Mathur
Abhimanyu Mathur is Deputy Editor, Entertainment at Hindustan Times. With almost 15 years of experience in writing about everything from films and TV shows to cricket matches and elections, he inhales and exhales pop culture and news. Currently, he watches movies and TV shows and talks to celebrities for a living, while occasionally writing about them as well. A journalism graduate of Delhi College of Arts and Commerce, Delhi University, Abhimanyu began his career with Hindustan Times at the age of 20, swapping classrooms for newsrooms at an early age. He began his journey in the early days of digital journalism, later switching to the madness of print journalism. Work has led him to far off places like Japan and Jordan, as well as to the interiors of Haryana and the Indo-Pak border. He dabbled in city reporting in places like Meerut, Gurgaon, and Delhi, covered the Olympics and Cricket World Cups, before finding his calling in entertainment and lifestyle during the pandemic. A Rotten Tomatoes Certified Film Critic, he is equally at home covering stories on ground as he is interviewing celebrities and studios, and sometimes prefers to shepherd teams in delivering traffic through the day. Even as his role has evolved from reporter to supervisor over the years, his first love remains writing (and of late, talking on camera). With a good understanding of cinema and its trends, and a keen eye for detail, he continues to spark conversations around showbiz for readers around the world.Read More

Michael Jackson

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