Delhi’s recovery road, as seen in Sunday numbers | Latest News Delhi - Hindustan Times
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Delhi’s recovery road, as seen in Sunday numbers

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | By, New Delhi
Jul 28, 2020 01:07 AM IST

A comparison of testing and case numbers recorded on all the Sundays this month makes evident the fall in cases and positivity rate at seven-day intervals.

The Capital recorded 613 new Covid-19 cases on Sunday -- the lowest in 62 days. Though the number was impacted by fewer tests conducted (testing usually comes down by close to half on Sundays), it tells a story of how Delhi has managed to wrest control of the epidemic.

The new cases this Sunday were almost half of what was seen on the first Sunday of the month (July 5) when there were 1,379 positive cases out of 13,879 tests for a positivity rate of 9.94%.(HT photo)
The new cases this Sunday were almost half of what was seen on the first Sunday of the month (July 5) when there were 1,379 positive cases out of 13,879 tests for a positivity rate of 9.94%.(HT photo)

A comparison of testing and case numbers recorded on all the Sundays this month makes evident the fall in cases and positivity rate at seven-day intervals.

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The new cases this Sunday were almost half of what was seen on the first Sunday of the month (July 5) when there were 1,379 positive cases out of 13,879 tests for a positivity rate of 9.94%. This went up marginally to 10.24% on July 12 (1,246 cases; 12,171 tests), but then came down to 8.32% on July 19 (954 cases, 11,470 tests) as cases stabilised, and was at just 5.32% this Sunday.

It is a suitable like-for-like comparison because, while the number of tests varies on the other days of the week, they always come down on Sundays since government-run dispensaries from where officials carry out outreach are closed and there is lower lower manpower deployment.

Our recovery rate is 88% and the [overall] rate of active cases in Delhi is only 9%, which means that out of 100 Corona infected people in Delhi, only nine people are currently infected and 88 people have recovered, and around 2-3% people have lost their lives. The most important thing is that the number of people who lost their lives has seen a drastic decline. Yesterday, there were just 21 deaths, and this figure used to be more than 100 in June,” said chief minister Arvind Kejriwal during a video address on Monday.

Delhi has a total of 131,219 infections and 3,853 fatalities due to the outbreak. On Sunday -- the data for which was released on Monday -- 26 people succumbed to the disease.

The improvement is also evident in active cases and hospitalisation data. Only 8.38% of Delhi’s total cases, or 10994, are now active (as compared to 25.41%, or 25620, on July 5). And only 2,835 beds are occupied (as compared to 5,250 on the month’s first Sunday).

Experts said the numbers represented things were under control for now. “Although the number of cases could be lower because fewer people were tested, even then Delhi has been showing a declining trend for about two weeks now. The positivity rate is also going down, below 5% would ideally indicate that things are under control,” said Dr Lalit Kant, the former head of epidemiology and communicable diseases at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), who added a cautionary note of the possibility that there could be a resurgence at any time.

“The good thing is, with doctors learning more about the disease and how to manage patients and people having oximeters reaching hospitals on time, the mortality has gone down,” he said.

A second expert, too, cautioned that unless people keep up the sort of attention they have paid on precautionary measures such as social distancing and wearing masks, a resurgence might be inevitable. “There have been several instances where the number of cases have started going up after being controlled, like in Kerala,” said Dr Shobha Broor, former head of the department of microbiology at AIIMS, Delhi.

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  • ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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    Anonna Dutt is a health reporter at Hindustan Times. She reports on Delhi government’s health policies, hospitals in Delhi, and health-related feature stories.

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