Sizzling 2024 to cross 1.5°C warming threshold
The global-average temperature for the past 12 months (November 2023 – October 2024) was 0.74 degrees C above the 1991-2020 average
This year will see the increase in the world’s average annual temperature breaching the Paris Agreement’s threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on Thursday.
Last year, 2023, was 1.48 degrees C warmer than pre-industrial levels, and while experts continue to reiterate that the Paris Agreement’s goals refer to long-term warming, and that an individual year or month breaching the limit does not mean a permanent breach, reality, as most people know, is different.
History then, could well mark 2024 as the year when the 1.5 degrees C warming limit was breached for good.
It is now virtually also certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record, C3S added. The average temperature increase for the rest of 2024 would have to drop to almost zero for 2024 to not be the warmest year, the agency said while adding that October 2024 was the second-warmest October globally, after October 2023.
“It is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record. It is also virtually certain that the annual temperature for 2024 will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level,” said Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of C3S in a statement.
October 2024 was 1.65 degrees C above the pre-industrial level and was the 15th month in a 16-month period for which the global-average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.
The global-average temperature for the past 12 months (November 2023 – October 2024) was 0.74 degrees C above the 1991-2020 average, and an estimated 1.62 degrees C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
C3S has also flagged that it is virtually certain that the annual temperature for 2024 from ERA5 (hourly temperature data from 1950 onwards) will be more than 1.5 degrees C above the pre-industrial level, and likely that it will be more than 1.55 degrees C above.
The Paris Agreement sets long-term goals to guide all nations to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2 degrees C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase even further to 1.5 °C, to avoid or reduce adverse impacts and related losses and damages.
“This is an indication of breaching the 1.5 threshold. It will happen very soon. We need to at least restrict warming to 2 degrees C even though the implications could be very high. But with a new US President who is an advocate for more fossil fuel energy, things could be very hard to negotiate,” said M Rajeevan, climate scientist and former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
US President-elect Donald Trump has remained a climate chance sceptic, and a votary of using more fossil fuel.
Breaching the 1.5 degrees limit will lead to irreversible impacts and risks for human and natural systems, an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report warned last year.
In its final report of the panel’s sixth assessment cycle until at least 2028 (seventh assessment cycle), IPCC indicated preventing overshoot of 1.5 degrees C was pretty much a matter of survival now as every increment of global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards and result in irreversible adverse impacts on polar, mountain, and coastal ecosystems, impacted by ice-sheet, glacier melt, or by accelerating and higher committed sea level rise.
The average sea surface temperature (SST) for October 2024 was 20.68 degrees C, the second-highest value on record for the month.
Arctic sea ice reached its fourth lowest monthly extent for October, 19% below average.
The C3S data comes ahead of the UN Climate negotiations (COP29) due to open next week in Baku.
Trump’s win sparked concerns about US backtracking on its climate commitments, with experts warning of major setbacks to global climate action.
In 2017, Trump announced US withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement, but the four-year exit process meant the withdrawal never materialised as he lost his re-election bid.
“Global action is essential to meaningful climate mitigation, and the US remains the most critical player. Beyond its cumulative contributions, the US still leads in per capita emissions, highlighting the need for both emission reductions and substantial investment in climate innovation and adaptation. Yet recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, the annual COP negotiations, and escalating extreme weather events reveal a concerning truth—global efforts have fallen short,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
“Climate change is not a priority under Trump or much of the Republican party, which remains focused on short-term economic gains through more drilling and fracking—choices that carry devastating long-term impacts. For the Global South, especially in regions like South Asia, these impacts are particularly severe. Tropical weather events are becoming faster, less predictable, and more intense, putting vulnerable populations directly in harm’s way. In the face of American inaction, it is clear we must brace for worsening conditions and invest in robust, locally tailored climate adaptation strategies to shield communities from the coming storms,” he added.
HT reported on November 1 that India experienced its warmest October in 123 years, with unprecedented night-time and mean temperatures across the country according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) .