Israel election: Arab parties projected to win record seats but may not be 'kingmakers'

Israel’s Arab-led parties are projected to win a record 19 seats, while Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot face an uncertain path to a majority.

Arab-led parties are projected to win a record number of seats in Israel’s parliament. The Joint List and Ra’am, two Arab-led political groups, are projected to win a combined 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset, Israel’s parliament. This could give them a stronger position in talks over the formation of the next government.

Israel’s Arab-led parties are projected to win 19 seats as Netanyahu faces uncertainty over forming the next government. (AP Photo)

The election has not produced a clear winner so far. Partial results show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc with 54 seats, while the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot has 49 seats. Neither side has secured the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member parliament.

Israel election: Arab parties could help opposition reach majority

The Arab parties could help the opposition remove Netanyahu from power, but political opposition to working with them remains a major obstacle. If Eisenkot’s alliance joins forces with the Arab-led parties, the combined group could cross the 61-seat majority mark. The Times of Israel reported that the partnership could command 66 seats based on the latest partial results.

Netanyahu and Eisenkot reject Arab party alliance

Deep Dive

What would 17 seats for Arab-led parties mean in Israel’s Knesset?

Why might Arab-led parties not become kingmakers after the Israel election?

How could Arab-led parties help the opposition form Israel’s next government?

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However, Arab parties are not yet certain to become kingmakers. Observers say their electoral gains may not translate into government power because several Jewish-led Israeli parties oppose forming a government with Arab-led groups. Honaida Ghanam, director general of the Palestinian Forum for Israeli Studies in Ramallah, said this political exclusion limits the ability of Arab citizens to turn their votes into influence over government decisions, as quoted by Al Jazeera.

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have rejected the idea of partnering with Arab-led parties. They have cited a lack of shared values as a reason for their opposition. This leaves the opposition alliance facing a difficult choice: it may need Arab support to reach a parliamentary majority, but accepting that support could create divisions within its own ranks.

Political analyst Ahmed Najar said the opposition’s reluctance to work with Arab parties is ideological rather than practical. He argued that Eisenkot has set conditions for Arab parties and ruled out depending on them, even though their support could be necessary to form a government. Najar said a partnership could be the most realistic way for Eisenkot to replace Netanyahu, as quoted by Al Jazeera.

Ra’am and Joint List offer support to opposition

Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has shown that he may be willing to join an Eisenkot-led government. Omar Shaban, director of Palthink for Strategic Studies, said Abbas had indicated a willingness to cooperate if Eisenkot became prime minister.

Another Joint List leader, Ahmad Tibi, has also reached out to the opposition alliance. Tibi said the bloc was extending its hand to the opposition to remove Netanyahu from power, according to Israeli media reports. However, it remains unclear whether the Joint List would formally join a governing coalition or support one from outside parliament.

Israel election: Four possible outcomes as government talks continue

There are several possible outcomes if neither major bloc can form a majority. Ghanam outlined four possibilities: another election, a minority government led by the opposition and supported from outside by Arab parties, members of the opposition defecting to Netanyahu’s bloc, or the formation of a national unity government.

Naftali Bennett has also said he wants to exclude Arab parties from the government. Bennett, whose alliance is currently in third place, has moved away from earlier efforts to work across political lines and has said he wants only Zionist parties in government.

The final outcome will depend on whether political leaders can overcome their differences and build a workable majority. The projected 19 seats for Arab-led parties could make them important to the parliamentary calculations, but their ability to influence the next government remains uncertain.