As Ghaziabad ramps up testing, cases decline

In the last nine days, the Ghaziabad health department has ramped up testing over the preceding few weeks and found fewer Covid-positive cases, officials said

In the last nine days, the Ghaziabad health department has ramped up testing over the preceding few weeks and found fewer Covid-positive cases, officials said.

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Experts say this indicated that the district had crossed the peak.

Between April 15 and April 30, it had conducted an average of 5,506 daily tests (1,828 RTPCR, 3,678 antigen) giving 684 average daily cases. In the next fortnight, it conducted only 3,658 daily average tests (1,707 RTPCR, 1951 antigen) that yielded 738 average daily cases.

Then the target was increased to at least 2,900 daily RTPCR tests and 5,200 daily tests.

From May 16 till May 24, it has already conducted 5,228 daily average tests (2,974 RTPCR, 2,254 antigen) tests and returning 329 daily average cases - an average positivity rate (proportion of tests returning positive results) of 6.3%. Currently, the positivity rate in May stood at 10.36%, down from the peak of 19.3% on May 6.

“For about a month starting mid-March, we were short on testing kits, which is no longer the case. These numbers indicate that the spread of infection has come down,” said Dr NK Gupta, chief medical officer. “This is primarily due to partial curfew. Early treatment through faster detection also helped.”

Initially, the partial corona curfew began at 8pm on April 30 and was due to end at 7am on May 4 but was extended several times. It is now extended to stay in place till 7am on May 31.

The officials familiar with the development also said that testing has also been increased in rural areas which was about 26% of overall testing till last week and now it is about 30% at present.

“Since the positivity is less in rural areas, increase in testing in such segments will also result in decline in positivity,” the officer added.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a positivity rate of 5% or lower over two weeks to consider the infection under control in a region.

“The declining figures indicate that the peak is over. Had the curfew been implemented earlier; it would have reduced number of cases and deaths. The recovery of patients in ICUs and on ventilators is still major concern,” said Dr Ashish Agarwal, president of Indian Medical Association (Ghaziabad). “It is also vital that vaccination is increased and within next couple of months, the vaccination coverage should cover 50-60% of the city population ahead of any probably third wave,” he added.

According to state control room records, there were 102 Covid-related deaths during the period starting March till December 31, 2020. But the tally on May 24 stood at 420.

He said that in case the government decided to do away with the partial Corona curfew, strict enforcement of Covid protocols should continue.

“It is vital that enforcement continues. Otherwise, people will again flout guidelines and it may happen those cases may start to increase again. During the present second wave, the cases spiked at rapid pace and also declining fast,” he added.