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Iran war, Israel ties: JD Vance's pollster's view of why voters chose Democrats in midterms echoes exit polls
Exit polls support JD Vance’s claim that the Iran war hurt Republicans, while Massie and Greene criticised the party over its policies.
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US Vice President JD Vance blamed the Iran war and America's relationship with Israel for the Republican Party's losses in the 2026 midterm elections. Exit poll findings released after the vote offer support for his claims, particularly on the war, while reactions from Republican lawmakers have added to the debate.
Democrats won control of both the House and Senate in Tuesday's elections, dealing a major setback to President Donald Trump and his party.
In a post on X on Wednesday, Vance said many people who voted for Trump in 2024 switched to Democrats in 2026. Citing a pollster, he listed four issues that could bring those voters back to the Republican side: ending the Iran war, addressing the cost of living and inflation, putting America First, and changing the US relationship with Israel.
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“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” Vance wrote.
Track the US midterms 2026 live here.
What do exit polls say about the Iran war?
The voter data offers support for Vance's argument on Iran. According to ABC News' voter poll, 34% of voters said the war was a crucial factor in their decision. The poll also found that 62% of voters believed the US made the wrong decision by using military force against Iran.
Also Read: James Talarico, Abdul El-Sayed among key US midterm election winners as Democrats flip Congress
However, the war was not the only major concern. The same ABC poll found that 49% of voters considered the cost of living crucial to their vote, while 55% said the same about government corruption.
Vance also pointed to the US relationship with Israel as a reason some former Trump voters moved to the Democrats. He said a pollster had identified changing that relationship as one of the four main issues raised by voters. The national exit poll figures, however, do not independently confirm this specific claim.
Thomas Massie, Marjorie Taylor Greene react
Vance's post drew responses from Republicans who had criticised the Iran war before the election.
Rep. Thomas Massie, who had pushed a resolution to limit military action against Iran, thanked Vance for acknowledging the issue.
“Thanks for acknowledging these things. Better late than never. I'll send you the hat,” Massie wrote on X, sharing an image of a red cap reading “Massie Was Right About Everything.”
Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene also responded, saying the four issues listed by Vance were part of the Republicans’ 2024 campaign promises. “You should have listened to me and Tucker and others who told you early,” she wrote, accusing the party of failing to deliver on its promises.
Meanwhile, Trump agreed that Vance's assessment was “largely true” but defended the decision to attack Iran. He said he “would've done nothing different”, arguing that military action was necessary to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon.
