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Lok Sabha elections 2019| ‘Caste, religion may decide poll outcome’: Political analyst
In 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party had polled 48.8% votes of the total votes, while the Indian National Lok Dal received 28% of the votes and the Congress finished third, with 10% of the votes.
The Gurgaon parliamentary constituency is set to witness a tight contest, with 24 candidates in the fray for selection as the next member of Parliament (MP) from the region. The political fate of these candidates will be decided by the votes of at least 21 lakh people, who will be exercising their franchise on Sunday in the sixth phase of Lok Sabha elections. With political heavyweights on one end and debutants on the other, the battle for selection of the next Gurgaon MP is set for a grandstand finish.
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had polled 48.8% votes of the total votes, while the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) received 28% of the votes and the Congress finished third, with 10% of the votes.
This time, the constituency will witness a multi-cornered contest between incumbent BJP MP Rao Inderjit Singh, Congress’ Captain (retd) Ajay Yadav, JJP’s (in alliance with AAP) Mehmood Khan, INLD’s Virender Rana and BSP’s Rais Ahmad among others.
For the BJP and Congress, the contest is not merely a fight to increase their potential national tally in the Lok Sabha. While Congress is aiming at making a comeback, the BJP hopes to register an impressive win that will give a fillip to the party’s prospects in the Haryana assembly elections, later this year.
In the fray is also INLD’s breakaway faction and the newly formed Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), which has entered into an alliance with the AAP. Dushyant Chautala’s JJP, which emerged as a key player in the Jind by-polls, is hoping to carve a space for itself in the polls.
The caste question
The Gurgaon constituency is a study in contrasts and multitudes. It includes Gurugram — a major hub of multinational companies and a crucial driver of the state’s revenue — on one hand, and Mewat — among the most backward districts in the country — on the other. While the four constituencies that fall in Gurgaon district display a rural-urban divide, the remaining constituencies in Mewat and Rewari are predominantly rural. Caste is expected to play a crucial role in these constituencies, especially in the Ahirwal belt. The Ahirwal belt is spread across south Haryana and Ahirs comprise 17.5% of the Gurgaon Parliamentary seat’s electorate.
Ram Kanwar, a political analyst and former professor, Haryana Agricultural University, Hissar, said that caste plays a major role in elections in the region. “Around 50% of the voting in the Ahirwal region, which includes Sohna and Pataudi, is done on the basis of caste. It will be the primary deciding factor, while others are secondary,” said Kanwar.
Both Congress and BJP have fielded Ahir/Yadav candidates. Rao Inderjit Singh, four-time MP, is an Ahir and so is six-time Rewari MLA, Ajay Yadav. Inderjit is also supported due to his family legacy. He is a descendant of freedom fighter Rao Tula Ram, a revered personality.
Mewat
Votes from Nuh, Punhana, and Ferozepur Jhirka can play a decisive role in making or breaking the final verdict. Meo-Muslims account for 20% of the electorate and as per past trends, tend to vote collectively in favour of one candidate. In 2014, the maximum votes from the region went to INLD’s Zakir Hussain, who secured 242,876 votes. BJP’s Rao Inderjit received 52,038 votes and the Congress candidate got 49,802 votes. Hussain is not contesting this time, while the Congress is pinning its hope on higher share of votes from Mewat.
However, two Muslim candidates are also in the fray this time. While the BSP’s Rais Ahmad was parachuted to Gurgaon ahead of the elections, JJP’s candidate Mehmood Khan is a local. Khan, however, is a political novice and will be contesting the elections for the first time. INLD candidate Virender Rana is also contesting elections for the first time, but the party is not expected to replicate its 2014 performance in Mewat.
These candidates can potentially dent the chances of Congress by splitting the votes, which would mean an advantage for the BJP. Experts, however, said that the Congress would still continue to have an upper hand in the region. “People vote strategically. Meos will not waste their vote on a candidate who has poor chances of winning. They will vote for the Congress, regardless of the other candidates being Muslims. Congress is the strongest opposition to BJP and people will vote to keep the BJP out,” said Kanwar.
Gurgaon and Badshahpur
Both Gurgaon and Badshahpur constituencies have a largely urban electorate. The two constituencies put together have 724,895 voters and according to experts, caste doesn’t hold much sway here. The two constituencies also have a huge migrant population, from the national Capital as well as other parts of the country.
“The Meos hold sway in Mewat and the Ahirs in Ahirwal. Gurgaon and Badshahpur have a different character. People here tend to vote for national parties. Since the BJP is in power, it is likely to benefit in these two areas,” said Kanwar.
Votes from the two constituencies can play a crucial role in boosting the BJP. “Congress might benefit from Mewati votes, while the BJP will have an advantage in Gurugram and Badshahpur. These votes could help the BJP make counter the loss of votes in Mewat,” said Kanwar.
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