E-Paper
Lok Sabha elections 2019: Surveys divided on impact of SP-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh
To be sure, exit polls can be wrong, although they have been directionally correct four out of the last five times when it comes to parliamentary elections.
The exit polls predicted a wide range for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 representatives to Parliament: from 33 to 68, although the general direction of the guesstimates suggest that the BJP will win the most seats in the state.
To be sure, exit polls can be wrong, although they have been directionally correct four out of the last five times when it comes to parliamentary elections.
Ahead of the elections, the Mahagatbandhan or grand alliance of the Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party, and Rashtriya Lok Dal were expected to ride on the arithmetic majority they possessed and win more seats than the BJP, which, many analysts said, was hoping the chemistry of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, its campaigner-in-chief, would offset this.
The ABP-Nielsen exit poll and the NewsX-Neta survey give the election in UP to arithmetic, and predict that the alliance will win 45 and 41 seats respectively and the BJP, 22. While the first gives the Congress two seats, the second gives the most seats to the Congress, 4.
In 2014, the BJP won 71 seats in the state and its ally the Apna Dal, 2.
The Republic-CVoter survey too gives the edge to the grand alliance, 40 to the NDA’s 38.
All the others predict a clear win for the BJP. The News 18-IPSOS survey gives the NDA 60-62 seats, with the grand alliance getting just 19. The Aajtak-Axis survey gives the NDA 68 seats and , intriguingly, gives the Congress just one seat, which, if true, would mean that either Congress President Rahul Gandhi or United Progressive Alliance chairperson Sonia Gandi, isn’t winning.
The Times Now-VMR survey gibes a slightly reduced number of 56 to NDA, and expects the grand alliance to win 20 seats. The Today’s Chanakya survey gives BJP more 57-73 seats.
The Samajwadi Party played down the exit polls surveys. Party spokesperson Juhie Singh said: “Exit polls are exit polls.We respect for them but have a healthier respect of own internal assessment which is seat wise stock taking after every phase , (in) which we are doing very well.’’
The Congress party which has been targetting the upper caste vote, hoping to defeat the BJP in around 10 seats said that the exit polls were misleading. Congress Rajya Sabha MP Pramod Tiwari said: `With due respect to all agencies, this is just speculation. Congress and friends are going to much much better. I remember that in 2004 we saw a similiar situation and will see the same again.’’
The BJP was in a celebratory mood. It sees the possible result as a clever combination of the Modi factor along with governance schemes that struck a chord with key groups such as women and farmers.
UP Minister Shrikant Sharmasaid the exit polls bear out the fulfilment of the party’s slogan “Ab ki baar, 300 paar (This time we will cross the 300 mark,’’ he said, adding “The Modi factor worked a lot for us. Women had toilets at home, farmers had their income support of 2,000 rupees (the first instalment) coming into their banks and when they turned on the TV, they also felt secure about the (country’s) borders.’’
Here is a look at the numbers:
