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Lok Sabha elections 2019 polling Phase 4: Turncoat support base may have a bearing in Rajasthan

Lok Sabha elections 2019 polling Phase 4: In the 13 seats out of 25 seats in Rajasthan, which are scheduled for polling today, the Congress was actually behind the BJP in terms of vote share by 2.5 percentage points in the 2018 assembly elections.

lok sabha elections Updated: Apr 29, 2019 08:23 IST
Abhishek Jha
Abhishek Jha
Hindustan Times, New Delhi
Rajasthan Lok Sabha seats,Lok Sabha elections 2019,2019 Lok Sabha elections
Thirteen out of 25 seats in Rajasthan will go to polls today. (PTI File Photo)

Thirteen out of 25 seats in Rajasthan will go to polls today. Since 2004, the party winning the preceding state election in Rajasthan has won a majority of the 25 Lok Sabha seats. Does this mean that the Congress will get ahead of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state in 2019? To be sure, the 2018 assembly elections were really close in Rajasthan. The vote share difference between the two largest parties in the state was the lowest in 2018 in all assembly elections held since 1998.

In the 13 seats, which are scheduled for polling today, the Congress was actually behind the BJP in terms of vote share by 2.5 percentage points in the 2018 assembly elections.

The BJP would have won 10 of these seats and the Congress three if these results are extrapolated at the parliamentary constituency (PC) level. In the 12 seats which will go to polls in the fifth phase, the Congress is ahead of the BJP by 3.8 percentage points and stands to win nine seats, according to extrapolated assembly results.

Two significant changes have, however, taken place in the state’s politics since the assembly elections last year. One, of the 13 independent MLAs in the Rajasthan assembly, 12 have joined the Congress. The MLAs are Raj Kumar Gaur, Mahadeo Singh, Alok Beniwal, Babulal Nagar, Laxman Meena, Baljeet Yadav, Kanti Prasad, Ramkesh, Suresh Tak, Khushveer Singh, Sanyam Lodha, and Ramila Khadiya. HT had analysed the impact of this move in an earlier story.

While the Congress did win the polls, its performance, according to many commentators, was lacklustre since it only got a 0.5 percentage point lead over the BJP in terms of vote share and stopped one short of the halfway mark in the assembly.

More recently, Hanuman Beniwal, a former BJP MLA who floated his own party (Rashtriya Loktantrik Party) before the 2018 assembly elections, has formed an alliance with his former party. In the fourth phase, six of the 12 assembly segments held by MLAs who have joined Congress and 21 of the 58 assembly segments Beniwal’s party contested will go to polls.

While the addition of these turncoat votes would have meant an increase in vote share for both the parties, the extrapolated tally changes by only one seat in favour of the Congress in the seats that poll in the fourth phase. Does this mean that the BJP will win most of these 13 seats in 2019 too?

The 13 seats going to polls today have followed the assembly elections trend in the 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

The Congress had a 4.4 percentage point lead over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in terms of vote share in the 2008 assembly elections in this region.

Extrapolating the result to parliamentary constituencies (PC) shows the seat tally would have been 9-4 in favour of the Congress. In the 2009 Lok Sabha election that followed, the Congress’s vote share lead over the BJP increased to 11.1 percentage points. The party won 11 of the 13 seats in 2009.

A similar trend was also seen in the 2013 assembly election and the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP won all the 13 seats in 2014 and its extrapolated seat tally for 2013 assembly election is also 13. Comparisons of assembly and Lok Sabha results before 2009 cannot be done because constituency boundaries have changed in the 2008 delimitation.

However, there is also evidence to the contrary. The remaining 12 seats in the state, which go to polls in the fifth phase, did not follow the trend of the preceding assembly election in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.

The extrapolated tally here was 7-4 in favour of the BJP in the 2008 assembly election. This changed to 9-2 in favour of the Congress in the 2009 Lok Sabha election, following the overall trend in the state in the preceding assembly election.

ConstituencySitting MP
Madhya Pradesh
Balaghat Bodhsingh Bhagat, BJP
Chhindwara Kamal Nath, Congress
Jabalpur Rakesh Singh, BJP
Mandla Faggan Singh Kulaste, BJP
Shahdol Gyan Singh, BJP
Sidhi Riti Pathak, BJP
Rajasthan
Ajmer Raghu Sharma, Congress
Banswara Manshankar Nimana, BJP
Barmer Sona Ram Choudhary, BJP
Bhilwara Subhash Baheria, BJP
Chhittorgarh Chandra Prakash Joshi, BJP
Jalore Devji Patel, BJP
Jhalawar-Baran Dushyant Singh, BJP
Jodhpur Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, BJP
Kota Om Birla, BJP
Pali P P Choudhary, BJP
Rajsamand Hariom Singh Rathore, BJP
Tonk-Sawai Madhopur Sukhbir Singh Jaunapuria, BJP
Udaipur Arjunlal Meena, BJP
Jammu and Kashmir
Anantnag Vacant
Maharashtra
Bhiwandi Kapil Moreshwar Patil, BJP
Dhule Dr. Bhamre Subhash Ramrao, BJP
Dindori Chavan Harishchandra Devram, BJP
Kalyan Dr.Shrikant Eknath Shinde, Shiv Sena
Mumbai North Gopal Chinayya Shetty, BJP
Mumbai North West Gajanan Chandrakant Kirtikar, Shiv Sena
Mumbai North East Kirit Somaiya, BJP
Mumbai North Central Poonam Mahajan, BJP
Mumbai South Central Rahul Ramesh Shewale, Shiv Sena
Mumbai South Arvind Ganpat Sawant, Shiv Sena
Maval Shrirang Chandu Barne, Shiv Sena
Nandurbar Dr Heena Gavit, BJP
Nashik Godse Hemant Tukaram, Shiv Sena
Palghar Rajendra Gavit, BJP
Shirdi Lokhande Sadashiv Kisan, Shiv Sena
Shirur Adhalrao Shivaji Dattatrey, Shiv Sena
Thane Vichare Rajan Baburao, Shiv Sena
ConstituencySitting MP
Uttar Pradesh
Akbarpur Devendra Singh Bhole, BJP
Etawah Ashok Kumar Doharey, BJP
Farrukhabad Mukesh Rajput, BJP
Hamirpur Kunwar Pushpendra Singh Chandel, BJP
Hardoi Anshul Verma, BJP
Jalaun Bhanu Pratap Singh Verma, BJP
Jhansi Uma Bharti, BJP
Kannauj Dimple Yadav, SP
Kanpur Murli Manohar Joshi, BJP
Kheri Ajay Kumar, BJP
Misrikh Anju Bala, BJP
Shahjahanpur Krishna Raj, BJP
Unnao Sakshi Maharaj, BJP
Jharkhand
Chatra Sunil Kumar Singh, BJP
Palamu Vishnu Dayal Ram, BJP
LohardagaSudarshan Bhagat, BJP
Odisha
Balasore Rabindra Kumar Jena, BJD
Bhadrak Arjun Charan Sethi, BJD
Jagatsinghpur Kulamani Samal, BJD
Jajpur Rita Tarai, BJD
Kendrapara Baijayant Panda, BJD (now in BJP)
Mayurbhang Rama Chandra Hansdah, BJD
West Bengal
Asansol Babul Supriyo, BJP
Baharampur Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, Congress
Bardhman Purba Sunil Kumar Mondal, Trinamool Congress
Bolpur Anupam Hazra, Trinamool Congress
Birbhum Shatabdi Roy, Trinamool Congress
Burdwan-Durgapur Mamtaz Sanghamita, Trinamool Congress
Krishnanagar Tapas Paul, Trinamool
Ranaghat Tapas Mandal, Trinamool
Bihar
Begusarai Dr. Bhola Singh, BJP
Darbhanga Kirti Azad, BJP
Munger Veena Devi, LJP
Samastipur Ram Chandra Paswan, LJP
Ujiarpur Nityanand Rai, BJP

First Published: Apr 29, 2019 07:09 IST

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