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Monday, Oct 21, 2019

Lok Sabha elections 2019 polling phase 4: High stakes for Congress, BJP in Madhya Pradesh swing seats

In the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, the Congress faces the challenge of retaining its support in select pockets of Madhya Pradesh that have historically not been its strongholds but where it performed better in 2018.

lok-sabha-elections Updated: Apr 29, 2019 07:19 IST
Vijdan Mohammad Kawoosa
Vijdan Mohammad Kawoosa
Hindustan Times, New Delhi
Former BJP MLA Jitendra Daga joins Congress in presence of Congress’s Bhopal Lok Sabha seat candidate Digvijay Singh in Bhopal on Sunday.
Former BJP MLA Jitendra Daga joins Congress in presence of Congress’s Bhopal Lok Sabha seat candidate Digvijay Singh in Bhopal on Sunday. (ANI Photo)
         

Twenty-nine parliamentary constituencies (PC) of Madhya Pradesh will go to polls in four phases beginning today. In the 2014 elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 27 of these with a vote share of 54%. The Congress won just two seats, down from 12 in 2009 and its lowest in three decades. In terms of vote share, the party was 19 percentage points behind the BJP. The Congress saw a revival in the December 2018 assembly elections by polling nearly as many votes as the BJP and forming the state government after 15 years. Extrapolation of these results at the PC level gives Congress a lead in 12 PCs.

In the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, the Congress faces the challenge of retaining its support in select pockets of the state that have historically not been its strongholds but where it performed better in 2018. The election will also test the Congress party’s ability to make dent in the BJP’s support in other regions of the state where the later has historically been a dominant force.

 

Eleven of the 29 PCs have remained with the BJP since 2008. This includes the Lok Sabha elections of 2009 and 2014 and the state assembly elections of 2008, 2013 and 2018. In case of assembly elections, results have been extrapolated at the PC level. A similar comparison with elections held before 2008 is not possible as the 2008 delimitation changed earlier constituency boundaries.

Even as the BJP has historically been stronger in these 11 PCs, it has become vulnerable there over time. In the 2018 state elections, the BJP’s victory margin in these 11 PCs was lower than its average victory margin there in the previous four elections.

Hindustantimes

Other than these 11 PCs, there are seven which the BJP has lost only once in the five elections held since 2008. It lost two of them to the Congress in the 2018 assembly elections.

In case of the Congress, there is no such PC where it had a lead in all five elections held since 2008. However, there are two PCs where it had a lead in four of these five elections, Guna and Dhar.

The Congress party has the highest stake in another nine PCs which have historically been flipping between the two parties. The Congress had a lead in all these PCs in the December 2018 elections, compared to just one in 2014. In terms of vote share in these nine PCs, the Congress had a lead over the BJP by a median average of eight percentage points.

Hindustantimes

 

ConstituencySitting MP
Madhya Pradesh
Balaghat Bodhsingh Bhagat, BJP
Chhindwara Kamal Nath, Congress
Jabalpur Rakesh Singh, BJP
Mandla Faggan Singh Kulaste, BJP
Shahdol Gyan Singh, BJP
Sidhi Riti Pathak, BJP
Rajasthan
Ajmer  Raghu Sharma, Congress
Banswara Manshankar Nimana, BJP
Barmer Sona Ram Choudhary, BJP
Bhilwara Subhash Baheria, BJP
Chhittorgarh Chandra Prakash Joshi, BJP
Jalore Devji Patel, BJP
Jhalawar-Baran Dushyant Singh, BJP
Jodhpur Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, BJP
Kota Om Birla, BJP
Pali P P Choudhary, BJP
Rajsamand Hariom Singh Rathore, BJP
Tonk-Sawai Madhopur Sukhbir Singh Jaunapuria, BJP
Udaipur Arjunlal Meena, BJP
Jammu and Kashmir
Anantnag Vacant
Maharashtra
Bhiwandi Kapil Moreshwar Patil, BJP
Dhule Dr. Bhamre Subhash Ramrao, BJP
Dindori Chavan Harishchandra Devram, BJP
Kalyan Dr.Shrikant Eknath Shinde, Shiv Sena
Mumbai North Gopal Chinayya Shetty, BJP
Mumbai North West Gajanan Chandrakant Kirtikar, Shiv Sena
Mumbai North East Kirit Somaiya, BJP
Mumbai North Central Poonam Mahajan, BJP
Mumbai South Central Rahul Ramesh Shewale, Shiv Sena
Mumbai South Arvind Ganpat Sawant, Shiv Sena
Maval Shrirang Chandu Barne, Shiv Sena
Nandurbar Dr Heena Gavit, BJP
Nashik Godse Hemant Tukaram, Shiv Sena
Palghar Rajendra Gavit, BJP
Shirdi Lokhande Sadashiv Kisan, Shiv Sena
Shirur Adhalrao Shivaji Dattatrey, Shiv Sena
Thane Vichare Rajan Baburao, Shiv Sena
ConstituencySitting MP
Uttar Pradesh
Akbarpur  Devendra Singh Bhole, BJP
Etawah  Ashok Kumar Doharey, BJP
Farrukhabad Mukesh Rajput, BJP
Hamirpur Kunwar Pushpendra Singh Chandel, BJP
Hardoi Anshul Verma, BJP
Jalaun Bhanu Pratap Singh Verma, BJP
Jhansi Uma Bharti, BJP
Kannauj Dimple Yadav, SP
Kanpur Murli Manohar Joshi, BJP
Kheri Ajay Kumar, BJP
Misrikh Anju Bala, BJP
Shahjahanpur Krishna Raj, BJP
Unnao Sakshi Maharaj, BJP
Jharkhand
Chatra Sunil Kumar Singh, BJP
Palamu Vishnu Dayal Ram, BJP
LohardagaSudarshan Bhagat, BJP
Odisha
Balasore Rabindra Kumar Jena, BJD
Bhadrak Arjun Charan Sethi, BJD
Jagatsinghpur Kulamani Samal, BJD
Jajpur Rita Tarai, BJD
Kendrapara Baijayant Panda, BJD (now in BJP)
Mayurbhang Rama Chandra Hansdah, BJD
West Bengal
Asansol Babul Supriyo, BJP
Baharampur Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, Congress
Bardhman Purba Sunil Kumar Mondal, Trinamool Congress
Bolpur Anupam Hazra, Trinamool Congress
Birbhum  Shatabdi Roy, Trinamool Congress
Burdwan-Durgapur Mamtaz Sanghamita, Trinamool Congress
Krishnanagar Tapas Paul, Trinamool
Ranaghat Tapas Mandal, Trinamool
Bihar
Begusarai Dr. Bhola Singh, BJP
Darbhanga Kirti Azad, BJP
Munger Veena Devi, LJP
Samastipur  Ram Chandra Paswan, LJP
Ujiarpur Nityanand Rai, BJP

First Published: Apr 29, 2019 07:08 IST

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