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Lok Sabha elections 2019: Tribal discontent poses tough fight for BJP in Jharkhand

Lok Sabha elections 2019 polling Phase 4: There is no guarantee that an electoral alliance of so many parties will be able to ensure perfect transfer of votes in different constituencies. At the same time, there is no guarantee that the BJP would retain its 2014 vote shares that could have been an effect of the Narendra Modi wave.

lok sabha elections Updated: Apr 29, 2019 08:56 IST
Roshan Kishore
Roshan Kishore
Hindustan Times, New Delhi
Jharkhand elections,tribal discontent,Jharkhand parties
In 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) registered its biggest ever victory in Jharkhand, winning 12 out of the 14 seats in the state.(HT Photo)

In 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) registered its biggest ever victory in Jharkhand, winning 12 out of the 14 seats in the state. The BJP polled 40.7% of the total votes polled, 16.1 percentage points more than what the alliance of Congress, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) could manage.

Jharkhand also had assembly elections in November and December 2014. Despite having swept the state in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP formed an alliance with the All Jharkhand Students’ Union Party (AJSUP) and won 42 out of the 81 seats in the assembly. Raghubar Das became the first non-tribal chief minister in Jharkhand after the NDA’s election victory.

While the BJP entered an alliance despite having won the Lok Sabha, the two main opposition parties, JMM and Congress, parted ways. The JMM put up candidates in 79 assembly seats, and the Congress forged a 62-19 seat alliance with the RJD. The combined vote share of the JMM and the Congress-RJD alliance was 34.6%, pretty close to the NDA figure of 35.5%.

The opposition seems to have learnt its lessons from the 2014 debacle in the battle for 2019. Jharkhand is probably the only state where the BJP is pitted against a grand alliance. Not only have the Congress, JMM and the RJD joined hands once again, they have also extended their alliance to include the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM), which has a significant vote share in the state. The combined vote share of the opposition alliance comprising the Congress, JMM, RJD and the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) was 36.9% and 44.8% in the 2014 Lok Sabha and assembly elections. If the votes of these four parties were aggregated at the parliamentary constituency (PC) level, and compared to the vote share of the BJP and the AJSUP, the BJP’s tally in 2014 Lok Sabha would have come down to nine instead of 12. An extrapolation of 2014 assembly results shows that the combined vote share of these four parties was more than that of the NDA in 11 PCs.

To be sure, there is no guarantee that an electoral alliance of so many parties will be able to ensure perfect transfer of votes in different constituencies. At the same time, there is no guarantee that the BJP would retain its 2014 vote shares that could have been an effect of the Narendra Modi wave. Anecdotal accounts also suggest that there could be significant tribal discontent against the BJP’s state government. The exact impact of these factors will only be known on May 23, but it can be said that the BJP’s main challenge in Jharkhand will to be cut its losses as much as possible

ConstituencySitting MP
Madhya Pradesh
Balaghat Bodhsingh Bhagat, BJP
Chhindwara Kamal Nath, Congress
Jabalpur Rakesh Singh, BJP
Mandla Faggan Singh Kulaste, BJP
Shahdol Gyan Singh, BJP
Sidhi Riti Pathak, BJP
Rajasthan
Ajmer Raghu Sharma, Congress
Banswara Manshankar Nimana, BJP
Barmer Sona Ram Choudhary, BJP
Bhilwara Subhash Baheria, BJP
Chhittorgarh Chandra Prakash Joshi, BJP
Jalore Devji Patel, BJP
Jhalawar-Baran Dushyant Singh, BJP
Jodhpur Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, BJP
Kota Om Birla, BJP
Pali P P Choudhary, BJP
Rajsamand Hariom Singh Rathore, BJP
Tonk-Sawai Madhopur Sukhbir Singh Jaunapuria, BJP
Udaipur Arjunlal Meena, BJP
Jammu and Kashmir
Anantnag Vacant
Maharashtra
Bhiwandi Kapil Moreshwar Patil, BJP
Dhule Dr. Bhamre Subhash Ramrao, BJP
Dindori Chavan Harishchandra Devram, BJP
Kalyan Dr.Shrikant Eknath Shinde, Shiv Sena
Mumbai North Gopal Chinayya Shetty, BJP
Mumbai North West Gajanan Chandrakant Kirtikar, Shiv Sena
Mumbai North East Kirit Somaiya, BJP
Mumbai North Central Poonam Mahajan, BJP
Mumbai South Central Rahul Ramesh Shewale, Shiv Sena
Mumbai South Arvind Ganpat Sawant, Shiv Sena
Maval Shrirang Chandu Barne, Shiv Sena
Nandurbar Dr Heena Gavit, BJP
Nashik Godse Hemant Tukaram, Shiv Sena
Palghar Rajendra Gavit, BJP
Shirdi Lokhande Sadashiv Kisan, Shiv Sena
Shirur Adhalrao Shivaji Dattatrey, Shiv Sena
Thane Vichare Rajan Baburao, Shiv Sena
ConstituencySitting MP
Uttar Pradesh
Akbarpur Devendra Singh Bhole, BJP
Etawah Ashok Kumar Doharey, BJP
Farrukhabad Mukesh Rajput, BJP
Hamirpur Kunwar Pushpendra Singh Chandel, BJP
Hardoi Anshul Verma, BJP
Jalaun Bhanu Pratap Singh Verma, BJP
Jhansi Uma Bharti, BJP
Kannauj Dimple Yadav, SP
Kanpur Murli Manohar Joshi, BJP
Kheri Ajay Kumar, BJP
Misrikh Anju Bala, BJP
Shahjahanpur Krishna Raj, BJP
Unnao Sakshi Maharaj, BJP
Jharkhand
Chatra Sunil Kumar Singh, BJP
Palamu Vishnu Dayal Ram, BJP
LohardagaSudarshan Bhagat, BJP
Odisha
Balasore Rabindra Kumar Jena, BJD
Bhadrak Arjun Charan Sethi, BJD
Jagatsinghpur Kulamani Samal, BJD
Jajpur Rita Tarai, BJD
Kendrapara Baijayant Panda, BJD (now in BJP)
Mayurbhang Rama Chandra Hansdah, BJD
West Bengal
Asansol Babul Supriyo, BJP
Baharampur Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, Congress
Bardhman Purba Sunil Kumar Mondal, Trinamool Congress
Bolpur Anupam Hazra, Trinamool Congress
Birbhum Shatabdi Roy, Trinamool Congress
Burdwan-Durgapur Mamtaz Sanghamita, Trinamool Congress
Krishnanagar Tapas Paul, Trinamool
Ranaghat Tapas Mandal, Trinamool
Bihar
Begusarai Dr. Bhola Singh, BJP
Darbhanga Kirti Azad, BJP
Munger Veena Devi, LJP
Samastipur Ram Chandra Paswan, LJP
Ujiarpur Nityanand Rai, BJP

First Published: Apr 29, 2019 07:10 IST