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Monday, Nov 18, 2019

Lok Sabha elections 2019: AIADMK faces test in election after Jayalalithaa era

The AIADMK created history by retaining power in Tamil Nadu by winning the assembly elections twice in a row, 2011 and 2016, ending a two-decade old trend. Tamil Nadu has flipped between the AIADMK and the DMK since 1989.

lok-sabha-elections Updated: Apr 18, 2019 13:28 IST
Abhishek Jha
Abhishek Jha
Hindustan Times, New Delhi
The results of 2019 polls will not just have a bearing on government formation at the Centre, but also give much needed clarity on the prevailing political uncertainty in the state.
The results of 2019 polls will not just have a bearing on government formation at the Centre, but also give much needed clarity on the prevailing political uncertainty in the state. (REUTERS)
         

2019 will be the first parliamentary election in Tamil Nadu after the death of two of the state’s biggest leaders: J Jayalalithaa of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and M Karunanidhi of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). The AIADMK created history by retaining power in Tamil Nadu by winning the assembly elections twice in a row, 2011 and 2016, ending a two-decade old trend. Tamil Nadu has flipped between the AIADMK and the DMK since 1989.

What is ironical is that the AIADMK’s alliance formula is not in keeping with its historic achievement in the 2016 elections. The AIADMK is only contesting 20 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu in these Lok Sabha elections, the lowest since 1996. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is contesting five seats in alliance with the AIADMK, while the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) are contesting seven and four seats respectively. The Puthiya Tamilagam, the Puthiya Needhi Katchi, and the Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar) have got one seat each.

To be sure, the DMK is also contesting only 20 seats in the state, but this is in keeping with its earlier alliance adjustments.

(See Chart 1: Seats contested by AIADMK and DMK in Tamil Nadu)

Hindustantimes

Why has the AIADMK ceded so much ground to its alliance partners? One, it does not have the charisma of Jayalalithaa anymore. An even bigger problem for the AIADMK is that succession battles after Jayalalithaa’s death might have significantly weakened the party. Eighteen of the 134 AIADMK’s MLAs were disqualified by the speaker of the state assembly in September 2017, after they sided with TTV Dhinakaran, the former chief minister’s protege. Dhinakaran later established his political clout by managing to wrest RK Nagar, Jayalalitha’s assembly seat, in a bypoll held in December 2017. He has floated a new party called the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK).

How much damage can the AMMK cause the AIADMK? An extrapolation of 2016 assembly results at the parliamentary constituency (PC) level suggests that it could be significant. The AIADMK’s PC-wise extrapolated tally would have come down from 34 to 27 if the votes of rebel MLAs were to be subtracted. If these MLAs are able to retain their popular support, it could lead to a significant reduction in the AIADMK’s vote share.

(See Chart 2: Before and after disqualification)

To be sure, the AMMK could also play spoiler for the DMK alliance. The DMK’s vote share came down by 19 percentage points between the 2016 assembly election and the 2017 by-poll in the RK Nagar assembly constituency. It is also difficult to say whether other smaller parties in the AIADMK alliance will be able to offset for the loss of votes on account of the AMMK.

The results of 2019 polls will not just have a bearing on government formation at the Centre, but also give much needed clarity on the prevailing political uncertainty in the state.

 

ConstituencySitting MP
Assam
KarimganjRadheshyam Biswas, AIUDF
SilcharSushmita Dev, Congress
Autonomous DistrictBiren Singh Engti, Congress
MangaldoiRamen Deka, BJP
NawgongRajen Gohain, BJP
Bihar
KishanganjMohammad Asrarul Haque, Congress
KatiharShah Tariq Anwar, NCP
PurniaSantosh Kumar, JD(U)
BhagalpurShailesh Kumar (Bulo Mandal), RJD
BankaJai Prakash Narayan Yadav, RJD
Chhattisgarh
RajnandgaonAbhishek Singh, BJP
MahasamundChandulal Sahu, BJP
KankerVikram Dev Usendi, BJP
Jammu and Kashmir
SrinagarFarooq Abdullah, National Conference
UdhampurDr. Jitendra Singh, BJPs
Karnataka
Udupi ChikmagalurShobha Karandlaje, BJP
HassanH.D. Deve Gowda, JD(S)
Dakshina KannadaNalin Kumar Kateel, BJP
ChitradurgaB.N.Chandrappa, Congress
TumkurS. P. Muddahanumegowda, Congress
MandyaCS Puttaraju, JD(S)
MysorePrathap Simha, BJP
ChamrajanagarR Dhruvanarayana, Congress
Bangalore RuralDK Suresh, Congress
Bangalore NorthDV Sadananda Gowda, BJP
Bangalore CentralPC Mohan, BJP
Bangalore SouthVacant after Ananth Kumar’s death in 2018
ChikkaballapurVeerappa Moily, Congress
KolarKH Muniyappa, Congress
Maharashtra
BuldhanaJadhav Prataprao Ganpatrao, Shiv Sena
AkolaDhotre Sanjay Shamrao, BJP
AmravatiAdsul Anandrao Vithoba, Shiv Sena
HingoliRajeev Shankarrao Satav, Congress
NandedAshok Shankarrao Chavan, Congress
ParbhaniJadhav Sanjay (Bandu) Haribhau, Shiv Sena
BeedPritam Gopinathrao Munde, BJP
OsmanabadGaikwad Ravindra Vishwanath, Shiv Sena
LaturDr. Sunil Baliram Gaikwad, BJP
SolapurSharad Bansode, BJP
Manipur
Inner ManipurThokchom Meinya, Congress
Odisha
BargarhPrabas Kumar Singh, BJD
SundargarhJual Oram, BJP
BolangirKalikesh Narayan Singh Deo, BJD
KandhamalPratyusha Rajeshwari Singh, BJD
AskaLadu Kishore Swain, BJD
ConstituencySitting MP
Tamil Nadu
TiruvallurDr. P. Venugopal, AIADMK
Chennai NorthTG Venkatesh Babu, AIADMK
Chennai SouthJ Jayavardhan, AIADMK
Chennai CentralSR Vijayakumar, AIADMK
SriperumbudurKN Ramachandran, AIADMK
KancheepuramK Maragatham, AIADMK
ArakkonamG Hari, AIADMK
VelloreB. Senguttuvan., AIADMK
KrishnagiriK Ashok Kumar, AIADMK
DharmapuriAnbumani Ramadoss, PMK
TiruvannamalaiVanaroja R, AIADMK
AraniV Elumalai, AIADMK
VillupuramRajendran S., AIADMK
KallakurichiK. Kamaraj, AIADMK
SalemV Pannerselvam, AIADMK
NamakkalPR Sundaram, AIADMK
ErodeS Selvakumara Chinnayan, AIADMK
TiruppurV.Sathyabama, AIADMK
NilgirisC Gopalakrishnan, AIADMK
CoimbatoreP Nagarajan, AIADMK
PollachiC Mahendran, AIADMK
DindigulM Udhayakumar, AIADMK
KarurM Thambidurai, AIADMK
TiruchirappalliKumar.P, AIADMK
PerambalurRP Marutharajaa, AIADMK
CuddaloreA Arunmozhithevan, AIADMK
ChidambaramM Chandrakasi, AIADMK
MayiladuthuraiRK Bharathi Mohan, AIADMK
NagapattinamDr K Gopal, AIADMK
ThanjavurK Parasuraman, AIADMK
SivagangaPR Senthilnathan, AIADMK
MaduraiR Gopalakrishnan, AIADMK
TheniR Parthipan, AIADMK
VirudhunagarRadhakrishnan T., AIADMK
RamanathapuramAnwhar Raajhaa, AIADMK
ThoothukkudiJeyasingh Thiyagaraj Natterjee.J, AIADMK
TenkasiM Vasanthi, AIADMK
TirunelvelliPrabakaran.K.R.P, AIADMK
KanniyakumariPon Radhakrishnan, BJP
Uttar Pradesh
NaginaYashwant Singh, BJP
AmrohaKanwar Singh Tanwar, BJP
BulandshahrBhola Singh, BJP
AligarhSatish Kumar Gautam, BJP
HathrasRanjan Kumar Diwakar, BJP
MathuraHema Malini, BJP
AgraRam Shankar Katheria, BJP
Fatehpur SikriChaudhary Babulal, BJP
West Bengal
JalpaiguriBijoy Chandra Barman, Trinamool
DarjeelingSS Ahluwalia, BJP
RaiganjMd Salim, CPI(M)
Puducherry
PuducherryR Radhakrishnan, AINRC